Gold remains supported but still range bound. Traders pile into gold following more signs that the US recovery is stuck in neutral, causing the metal to jump over $20 per ounce to a high of $1,218.84 per toz. Retail sales sour economists’ hopes of a strong consumer as core retail sales, ex-autos, rise only .1 percent. This was .4 percent lower than expectations...
Traders knocked gold below $1,200 for the time being, as market participants determine whether or not the Federal Reserve will hike the Fed funds rate for the first time since 2006. The Fed is stringing along financial markets. Either the economy is strong and deserve a tightening of monetary policy, or it is not. The voting members of the FOMC still remain...
The Russell 2000 boasts a whopping 89.27 P/E ratio and a dividend ratio of 1.36 percent. There actually is sometime that pays less than a US 10Y (for now). Seemingly an index that is traded off of technicals, traders could see today's rapid pullback as the beginning to a larger correction. After a double-doji top, the Russell 2000 could not expand upon all-time...
Bad data ushers in gold bulls. [/i The dollar is weakening, again, on bad data with durable goods declining 1.4 percent in February versus expectations of a .4 percent gain. Core durable goods month-over-month, ex-transportation, fell .4 percent while January’s figure was revised down from zero to a contraction of .7 percent. The ongoing poor data out of the US...
Earlier this month, the idea of lumber being a signal for economic data was brought to the table (here). Lumber is not necessarily a trader’s first go-to for evaluating economic forecasts, but there is a striking resemblance in trend for lumber and the ISM manufacturing PMI data. As lumber prices dive, manufacturing data tends to do the same (and vice versa)....
Nobody can ignore the greenback gorilla in the room any longer as one percent moves seem to be a natural occurrence. The unprecedented drop in the euro, yen and Swiss franc is forcing the dollar index higher, causing dollar-priced commodities to decline lower. There is a striking pattern with the Swiss franc and gold. For many years, both assets have traded...
Given the large gains seen over the last two days, there could be support in the cards for leveraged minor ETFs following profit taking. NUGT, Direxion Daily Gold Miners, is the 3x leverage of the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX). Price action is heavily to the downside, reaching support at $9.11 – forming a triple-bottom on the two-hour chart. Price visited...
Platinum has been on a steady decline with slow demand. Platinum trades at a discount to gold, a condition that occurred last month. The spread between the two precious metals has tightened, but were at the widest in two years. Platinum, although grouped in with gold and silver as a precious metal, is typically lumped into the industrial group with palladium....
Silver is, at times, violently volatile and noticeably a proxy for the US dollar. With the dollar at levels not seen since 2005 and 2006, sentiment for precious metals remain weak. There are two factors for this, and it does not matter which one chooses. The dollar has been able to hold current levels via the perception that the Federal Reserve will - at some...
Market participants’ optimism has strengthened the pullback in gold. Gold prices are hanging by a thread. Technical support at $1,204 per toz. has held on but barely,as market participant optimism has strengthened the yellow metal’s decent. A close below $1,204, gold prices are likely to test lower support between $1,185 and $1,190 per toz. Gold has seen a large...
Gasoline has seen a crazy rally in the first six weeks of 2015, after a record number of daily declines; but, considering the continued oversupply in both crude and gasoline inventories, RBOB could look to pullback. No longer in an oversold condition on the daily chart, gas has been unable to close above $1.6192, as well as a minor descending trend line. So far,...
Is silver’s seasonality about to monkey hammer prices lower? As market complacency is regained through a positive non-farm payroll headline, precious metals have been retreating on a stronger dollar and the assumption that the Greece v. European Union tension will end up honky-dory. However, are silver prices about to get pounded lower? Looking at a chart of...
I haven't posted about crude in a few weeks because the fundamentals and technicals simply have told the same story over and over again. Bulls get bullish because A) they believe the global economic growth falacy or B) it's so oversold it must go higher. My charts did not change, and, yes, it has played out well technically to the downside. It is ever closer to...
The Swiss franc is lower on the day amid speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to actively weaken the currency. As you can see by the comparison, gold tracks the Swissy rather closely. Interestingly enough, gold's all-time high of $1,923 ended at about the same time the SNB decided to peg their...
Price action broke from consolidation, and hovered underneath resistance at $333. Instead of trending lower, price action climbed the ascending trend line and rallied to $306. As said many times, these rallies are almost sold. This one was no exception. Technically speaking, traders should have exited their trades after the ADX ticked lower, which is the first...
Historically, gold and the US dollar move inverse of each other. Time to abandon this preconception? The US dollar is going strong, but is it time to change the preconception that a strong US dollar is automatically bad for gold? Perhaps. The inverse relation has historically occurred, but in times of uncertainty, the inverse breaks and gold typically remains on...
Lumber is highly correlated to the ISM manufacturing index (or vice versa?). Nevertheless, the weakness in lumber prices is corresponding with the softening manufacturing data, although manufacturing data from Markit suggest manufacturing is weaker than ISM reports. New orders index collapsed from Nov/Dec 66 to 57. Prices have noticeably declined, too. Anyways,...
(Originally posted yesterday with appropriate charts) Gold takes a breather, while negative data continues to pour in. Gold’s inability to close above $1,300 is a mild hit for bulls, but prices will likely consolidate prior to the next leg higher. Prices declined to $1,280 per toz., just above the descending trend line, now support. The likely scenario is that...