Metrics: Probability of Profit: 38% Max Profit: $140/contract Max Loss: $60 contract Break Even: 18.60 Notes: With the underlying at all-time lows, going for a small directional shot. Going out to April to attempt to take advantage of potential seasonality. Fills look to be pesky, with the bid/ask on this setup at .55/.65 (mid .60) ... . I would also note...
I had to scramble mightily to get these on at the 11 CST pop/VXST/VIX ratio of >1.15, first opening the 14/17 for a 2.25 debit and then the 15/18 for a 2.20 debit ... . The break even for the former is 14.75 with a max profit potential of $75/contract and a 15.80 break even for the latter with a max profit potential of $80/contract.
... for a 2.29 debit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 61% Max Profit: $71/contract Max Loss: $229/contract Break Even: 13.71 Notes: Putting on a little more UVXY long put vert in light of this little pop we had today (VXST/VIX ratio finished at .95). The January 12th weekly opens tomorrow, so may add another position there as well ... .
Metrics: Probability of Profit: 85% Max Profit: $65/contract at the mid* Max Loss: $235/contract Break Even: 15.65 * -- I usually like to get these filled for 2.25 or less. Notes: A slight variation on a term structure trade, which ordinarily uses the corresponding /VX futures price for guidance as to where to set up your spread. Here, instead of using the...
... for a 2.23 debit. Max Profit: $77/contract Max Loss: $223/contract Bread Even: 32.77 Notes: My set ups in UVXY in the January monthly were getting a bit crowded around the strikes I would use here, so putting a small position on in VXX instead with 45 days until expiration.
... for a 2.25/contract debit. Max Profit: .75 ($75)/contract Max Loss: 2.25 (225)/contract Break Even: 13.25 Notes: Basically a contango drift/beta slippage play, but playing the ball where it lies, rather than waiting for a pop ... . Going long put vert instead of my usual short call vert due to comparatively low VVIX.
... for a 3.85/contract debit. Here, I'm going with the deep in the money 90 delta long, the out of the money 30 delta short. The long functions as a stand in for the stock with the short providing cost basis reduction. I'll look to roll the short call at significant loss of value to reduce cost basis and take profit at anywhere north of 10% of what I put the...
... for a .49/contract credit (late post). Finally catching up with some of last week's trades ... . Relatively high implied volatility after earnings (currently at 44%), going small, defined, since I'd rather keep dry powder on for something sexier (which there hasn't been much of here). Will shoot for 50% max on this little fella ... .
... for a .66/contract credit on another VXST/VIX >1.00 print. Probability of Profit: 52% Max Profit: .66 ($66)/contract Max Loss: 1.34 ($134)/contract BE: 33.66 Notes: Will start to look at taking profit north of 50% max ... .
... for a .49 ($49)/contract credit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 63% Max Profit: $49/contract Max Loss: $151/contract Breakevens: 33.51/40.49 Delta: 1.64 Theta: .99 Notes: Going small, defined, neutral assumption here, since the implied volatility isn't as high as I would like. Shooting for 50% max ... . The full on naked 34/40 in the same expiry...
... for a .38/contract credit. With an implied volatility of 31.6, this is one of the higher volatility exchange traded funds. Going small. For a two-wide, this credit is less than compelling; I usually want to see 1/3rd the width of the wings out of these. Thinking of it more as an "engagement trade" than anything else, as I wait for some volatility to...
SEAS announces earnings on 11/7 before market open, with an implied volatility of 71%, which is at the upper end of its range over the previous 52 week period. The November 17th 11 short straddle is paying 1.37 at the mid with a comparable iron fly probably not paying enough to make it worthwhile (less than 1/4 the width of the longs). CTL (implied volatility of...
... for a .77/contract credit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 89% Max Profit: $77/contract Max Loss: $223/contract Break Even: 16.77 Notes: This is way farther out than I generally like to go with these, but with the /VX term structure the way it is currently and the way it has been for the past several months, this is probably the best I'm going to get until...
* -- Options for the Small Account Let's face it. This is a really tough market for small accounts. You can either wait to build up your account to something decent to actually be able to trade some of the broader (and more expensive) market offerings, dollar cost average in a few shares at a time at all time highs (that doesn't sound enticing, although that's...
EARNINGS GE announces earnings on 10/20 (Friday) before market open. With a background implied volatility in high 20's (28% as of Friday close), it isn't particularly high from a premium selling standpoint, but I could see this as a potential acquisition opportunity via a November 17th 22 short put (paying .32 at the mid), in spite of the fact that the...
This trade started out as a same strike calendar with the back month at the 40 delta strike and the front month at the same strike (see Post Below). As price has moved and I've rolled aspects of the setup, it has now morphed into a diagonal, with a roll today from the October 13th 138 short put to the October 27th 138 short put for a realized gain and a .26...
You may have heard me say in the past that you should use high implied volatility strategies in high implied volatility environments and low volatility strategies in low volatility environments. A credit spread is generally considered a high volatility environment play, while a debit spread is considered a low volatility environment play. Consequently, since...
Earnings COST announces earnings on Thursday after market close. With a background implied volatility of 21%, it doesn't meet my basic earnings play sniff test, but naturally that can increase running into earnings, so it may be worth keeping an eye on. Preliminarily, the Oct 20th 158/170 short strangle currently pays 2.21 at the mid with break evens around...