Summary: The USD has weakened across the board and US long yields have risen to their highest level since June, unlike yield developments elsewhere. The strength in the Chinese renminbi needs a closer look as the fall in USDCNY accelerates, and the JPY is suddenly waking up this morning as USDJPY slips back below 105.00. Elsewhere, sterling complacency is...
Summary: Sterling concern on the Brexit talks status lurched a few notches higher as the UK refuses to sit down for renewed talks until the EU makes concessions. Elsewhere, dovish jawboning overnight from an RBA official as the market shifting its expectations lower for the rate cut at the November 3 RBA meeting. Elsewhere, today is the deadline for US House...
Summary: The US dollar continues to meander back and forth on the rise and fall in stimulus hopes, with a new timeline early this week for the prospects of a deal after a House Speaker Pelosi ultimatum. Our focus this week elsewhere is on AUD after the sell-off last week on indications that the RBA is readying a proper QE programme, and on GBP as the market...
Summary: There will be no Brexit talk deadline today, a relief for sterling bulls, but a situation that merely extends the uncertainty. Elsewhere, the RBA November 3 meeting is likely shaping up for a new easing push from Lowe and company as their overnight musings on longer term QE took the AUD down a few notches. Elsewhere, we watch the relative strength race...
Summary: The US dollar and Japanese yen surged yesterday, on possible sudden safe haven seeking within G10 on the recognition that the short-term two-way risks for sterling are significant ahead of the Brexit negotiation deadline tomorrow. GBPUSD plunged back below 1.3000 but depending on how headlines shape up tomorrow on the status of negotiations could find...
FX Update: USD breaks support but do bears want to press their case pre-election?
Summary: The US dollar closed last week below important support levels as investors position for a large US stimulus deal and wax positive on a Biden presidency as odds continue to tilt his way in the latest polls, easing fears of a contested election. Elsewhere, China initiated a...
Summary: It is difficult to craft any cogent narrative for the US dollar at the moment based on near-term and longer-term stimulus prospects and election outcomes, but surely we are set for a directional move in sterling soon of some magnitude as the October 15 Boris Johnson deadline for Brexit negotiations comes into view next week.
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Summary: USD weakness has extended to pivotal levels that are the bull-bear dividing line between a return to a weak USD regime and the more neutral tactical outlook if USD support holds here. Volatility remains muted, but will have a hard time remaining that way if we continue to see anything resembling the pronounced weakness in US treasuries yesterday
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Summary: The US dollar and Japanese yen knee-jerked stronger on the news in early European hours that US President Trump and the First Lady have tested positive for Covid-19 after traveling with a sick aide in recent days. The implications of this news could turn in very different directions for markets from here depending on how serious Trump reacts to the...
Summary: The mood across markets has brightened further in Europe on smooth Brexit hopes driven by the news that major London clearinghouses will retain access to the EU after December 31. This has EURGBP eyeing downside pivot levels. Elsewhere, things are looking a bit less bright as the strong US dollar weighs on sentiment for EM currencies and even among the...
Summary: The USD rally has notched the intensity level higher in breaking key technical levels in a number of USD pairs, from EURUSD to AUDUSD. The JPY also continues to rally broadly as both traditional safe haven currencies are thriving despite a general lack of market volatility in equity markets yesterday and today. Other indicators point to some cause for...
Summary: With risk sentiment slipping into a more profound funk to start the week, the yen continues to bash its was stronger against every other currency, but the USD has changed course and is finally waking up to its role as a fellow safe haven when global risk assets are on the defensive. One key driver besides the COVID-19 resurgence is the sudden further...
The late strengthening in the Chinese currency has taken on strong new momentum this week and may be behind some of the broader pressure on the US dollar ahead of an interesting Retail Sales report tomorrow as well as the FOMC meeting and the latest economic and policy projections after the US recovery has outpaced expectations from its June forecasts.
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