BITCOIN Is it repeating the late 2019 formation?

Bitcoin's price action since the May sell-off has drawn many comparisons to blow-off tops of its cyclical Bear Cycles. However as the consolidation since the May 19 low continues, it displays more and more similarities with the late 2019 price action, which was a mini bear phase following the very aggressive rise of April/ May/ June 2019 that was based to a big extend on the 'Libra mania'.


** Similarities with 2019 **
On the 1D time-frame the two sequences (today and late 2019) have one key similarity that stands out. The price was 'squeezed' within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA50 (bold red trend-line) following a 1D Death Cross (when the 1D MA50 crosses below the 1D MA200). The second is that both started trading below a Lower Highs trend-line of a -13o angle. Right now the 1W MA50 is supporting, almost the same way it did in October 2019, and even though it marginally broke in November - December (2019), it was what initiated a strong rebound to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.


** The RSI bullish divergence **
The support of the 1W MA50 is key as it is being achieved despite Bitcoin being on Lower Lows (LL) while the 1D RSI is on Higher Lows (HL). This is a Bullish Divergence and was also seen both during October and late Nov - early Dec 2019. This divergence was enough to start the rebound to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.


** Fundamentals took over **
It can be argued that if it wasn't for the 'once in a decade' event of the March 2020 COVID crash, Bitcoin would have extended the rebound past the 0.618 Fib, essentially fully completing the recovery. We can't know that for sure but such an abnormal event should be classified as an anomaly and be taken into consideration as such. We can argue that the May 2021 sell-off wasn't just a technical correction of the very aggressive October 2020 - April 2021 parabolic rise but was also fueled by very negative fundamentals (Tesla, China-miners etc).

Have all the negative fundamentals priced in already? We can't know for sure but if they have, the Bullish Divergence on the 1D RSI definitely shows something.


What do you think? Is this MA50 squeeze about to kick-start a rebound to the 0.618 Fib and if yes has the market digested all the negative fundamentals so that, as opposed to the COVID crash, it can resume the long-term Bull Trend? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!


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