BTC / USD bearish outlook. High probability of a 15% drop

There are many reasons why BTC could actually fall further from this descending channel, both on the chart and in the macro economy. Let's dig into my reasoning and how I came to this conclusion.

Here is a list of negative factors:

• The macroeconomic outlook is bad. We will likely see poor CPI reports and disappointing FED meetings in the coming months.
  
• The S&P 500 is at an all-time high, suggesting a correction is imminent. If this correction occurs, crypto will also likely fall.
  
• Gold prices have corrected.
  
• BTC has been moving sideways for 170 days, causing many bulls to turn bearish in hopes of finding a better entry point for the remainder of the bull run.
  
• There is a lot of liquidity and short positions below us at $58k, 52K , and 48K , which exchanges and whales can easily target.
  
• There is significant liquidity above us at 67K - $71k, but bulls have tried to reach this level four times and were rejected by the top descending trendline.
  
• Volume is decreasing, which can lead to a massive move.
  
• The MACD is struggling to rise, indicating low momentum.
  
• The SRSI is oscillating below 50 without breaking out of this middle range.
  
• The fake-out on April 9th reset the downtrend channel with a more bearish outlook, which is why I start my trendline from this date.
  

Conclusion: To exit this descending channel, a shakeout is necessary. The bulls are not strong enough to push to the upside, the macroeconomic environment is negative, and there is nothing to help BTC pump significantly.

Bulls seem to realize that in order to escape this trap, a significant capitulation is necessary to restart the uptrend.

If we drop to the $50k area, many bears will enter long positions, resetting the market to an uptrend.

This is just an idea, I might be wrong, DYOR, everything can happen.

Comment:

Well this idea was a probability, but apparently it didn't play out, which is a good news. 64K should now act as a resistance to pump higher.

Trade closed manually:

This idea was wrong. It happens.