Nothing is obvious right now with BTC
Updated
Admittedly I haven't posted TA in a while, simply because I haven't seen clear signals in the market for some time. At times market direction isn't very organic, BTC tends to explode with massive moves from the blue, and this is both exciting and scary!
Some things I have been pondering:
- Is the bottom in at around 7300 ? Many think it could be, but at the time we established the low I admit I didn't think it was.
- I was expecting a slightly deeper retracement to around 6800 or even 6300, so that is a lingering question for me still.
- The move from 7300 all the way past 10300 was unprecedented, 3000 USD in one move was massive even for Bitcoin. But it quickly got pushed back, and currently still sits in no mans land.
- I don't see the downward channel to have been broken yet... Since June the market direction is bearish and remains so.
- It looks like the internal retracement started i June is nearing completion, so a major move could be very close
- Short term I expect a slight dip to around 8400 / 8500 before another test of the resistance at 9600... At this point we should know what the market is doing and be in better stead to trade with the trend
- If resistance holds and Bitcoin can't break and hold above 10700 I will go short, anticipating a retest of the bottom of the channel... This will reopen the question of where the bottom is for me!
Overall I am bullish on BTC, it is just a matter of time before we make a massive move upwards, but the timing is in question for me, and I don't trust the previous 3000 USD move until I have confirmation...
Trade Safe!
-Peter
Some things I have been pondering:
- Is the bottom in at around 7300 ? Many think it could be, but at the time we established the low I admit I didn't think it was.
- I was expecting a slightly deeper retracement to around 6800 or even 6300, so that is a lingering question for me still.
- The move from 7300 all the way past 10300 was unprecedented, 3000 USD in one move was massive even for Bitcoin. But it quickly got pushed back, and currently still sits in no mans land.
- I don't see the downward channel to have been broken yet... Since June the market direction is bearish and remains so.
- It looks like the internal retracement started i June is nearing completion, so a major move could be very close
- Short term I expect a slight dip to around 8400 / 8500 before another test of the resistance at 9600... At this point we should know what the market is doing and be in better stead to trade with the trend
- If resistance holds and Bitcoin can't break and hold above 10700 I will go short, anticipating a retest of the bottom of the channel... This will reopen the question of where the bottom is for me!
Overall I am bullish on BTC, it is just a matter of time before we make a massive move upwards, but the timing is in question for me, and I don't trust the previous 3000 USD move until I have confirmation...
Trade Safe!
-Peter
Trade active
First target is almost there, 8700 is the 50% Algo, and the golden pocket retracement is between 8300 and 8400. My target is a conservative 8400-8500 and it looks like its on the verge of being realized. The 50% Algo target (8700) did not react with a notable bounce so I am going to remain in the trade, and expect the short to be fully realized.
Trade closed: target reached
First target was reached, heading back up to resistance but with no conviction, so we are still expecting a reversal and then lower to the second targetTrade closed: target reached
Second target reached, closing all shorts... We may drift down a little while longer, but not going to try to catch a falling knife! Looking for a long next target is up to resistance at least at 9.5k.
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