EUR/USD mid-term Long
Updated
Pair is is very close proximity to resistance channel valid from May.
As most likely scenarios from now on I see upward rebound from 50MA (red line) or from resistance line drawn in monthly scale (orange line).
If that were not to materialize, I have second long setup as well just above 1.17.
Fibonacci indicates resistance at 61.8% meaning there is likelihood of pair hitting -27% meaning break out of upward the channel. However in this case I don't think it's safe to go mainly with technical presumption only since we have lots of fundamental events scheduled in near future and Eurozones core macroeconomic data are gaining upward momentum.
Main influences on this pair at the moment are European economic data, scheduled ECB speakers, Donald Trump tweets/remarks, US tax reform and US economic data.
Economic data of both countries are showing economic data matching consensus if not exceeding it in past ~6 months, however European economy is growing in slightly faster pace - based on this I expect Eur/Usd to strengthen in mid/long-term horizon.
Markets are expecting more details on Trump tax reform this Wednesday so we'll need to wait for that, however analysts are expecting lack of clarity regarding corporate/business tax.
On daily time frame we can see Shooting Star and Bearish engulfing indicating short, however given all the factors I won't go for that scenario.
Take care everyone
*I recommend using pivots, EMAs 34, 55, 89 and MA 6, 21, 72, 233
As most likely scenarios from now on I see upward rebound from 50MA (red line) or from resistance line drawn in monthly scale (orange line).
If that were not to materialize, I have second long setup as well just above 1.17.
Fibonacci indicates resistance at 61.8% meaning there is likelihood of pair hitting -27% meaning break out of upward the channel. However in this case I don't think it's safe to go mainly with technical presumption only since we have lots of fundamental events scheduled in near future and Eurozones core macroeconomic data are gaining upward momentum.
Main influences on this pair at the moment are European economic data, scheduled ECB speakers, Donald Trump tweets/remarks, US tax reform and US economic data.
Economic data of both countries are showing economic data matching consensus if not exceeding it in past ~6 months, however European economy is growing in slightly faster pace - based on this I expect Eur/Usd to strengthen in mid/long-term horizon.
Markets are expecting more details on Trump tax reform this Wednesday so we'll need to wait for that, however analysts are expecting lack of clarity regarding corporate/business tax.
On daily time frame we can see Shooting Star and Bearish engulfing indicating short, however given all the factors I won't go for that scenario.
Take care everyone
*I recommend using pivots, EMAs 34, 55, 89 and MA 6, 21, 72, 233
Comment
Also be sure to have DXY on the radar
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