Re-Integration By Parts (near-term FB)
This type of scenario/projection requires you to use your imagination a bit - align that with some solid math and some extrapolation and what we have is a very possible near-term scenario:
- Imagine FB never gapped last earnings, what would the price action look like. Is it possible it was forming the final part of its distribution phase that would have decreased in volatility s.t. it took the shape of a triangle pattern, and instead the earnings report accelerated the mark down? What we can do is extrapolate by cloning the current trendlines across the highs and lows post-gap down (blue lines) and populating where the range left off pre-gap. To properly complete the distribution phase might require a retest of the bottom range, and rejection before really tanking it/discounting it (by that I mean it will likely end up sub 170 (shaded red rectangle area) mid-term -- that would be a proper discounting before the next long-term bullish impulse wave can begin.
- Now, introduce some conventional techniques to see if there is a plausible path to test for rejection... recent (minor) bullish wolfe-wave 1-4 EPA @ ETA says yes, indeed, and by May 21st - nearly exactly when that pre-gap support line intersects the 1-4 EPA @ ETA!!
- Finally, is there a setup that would make such a near-term run actually bearish s.t. it would get rejected and complete markdown going into the summer? Indeed, Bearish Deep Crab Harmonic.
In summary:
~ Near-Term long to 258
~ Mid-term short back to 170ish IF rejected after near-term pop
~ Long-term Bullish but will have to re-analyze and update along the way.
There are more details to how/why I drew the path projection the way that I did, it is not random - pop pre-earning (i.e. before next week), small gap down post earnings next week, explosive bounce from that smaller gap to fill said gap and that momentum will take it to near-term target. If you're interested in how I determined this and you are familiar with stochastic analysis/Ito Calculus then we should talk. Otherwise just trust my word the math is gucci.
This would be kinda crazy if it all plays out lmao, but worth bringing up as a perspective on "meta" or whatever; not financial advice or whatnot.
Bless your souls,
The Alpinist
- Imagine FB never gapped last earnings, what would the price action look like. Is it possible it was forming the final part of its distribution phase that would have decreased in volatility s.t. it took the shape of a triangle pattern, and instead the earnings report accelerated the mark down? What we can do is extrapolate by cloning the current trendlines across the highs and lows post-gap down (blue lines) and populating where the range left off pre-gap. To properly complete the distribution phase might require a retest of the bottom range, and rejection before really tanking it/discounting it (by that I mean it will likely end up sub 170 (shaded red rectangle area) mid-term -- that would be a proper discounting before the next long-term bullish impulse wave can begin.
- Now, introduce some conventional techniques to see if there is a plausible path to test for rejection... recent (minor) bullish wolfe-wave 1-4 EPA @ ETA says yes, indeed, and by May 21st - nearly exactly when that pre-gap support line intersects the 1-4 EPA @ ETA!!
- Finally, is there a setup that would make such a near-term run actually bearish s.t. it would get rejected and complete markdown going into the summer? Indeed, Bearish Deep Crab Harmonic.
In summary:
~ Near-Term long to 258
~ Mid-term short back to 170ish IF rejected after near-term pop
~ Long-term Bullish but will have to re-analyze and update along the way.
There are more details to how/why I drew the path projection the way that I did, it is not random - pop pre-earning (i.e. before next week), small gap down post earnings next week, explosive bounce from that smaller gap to fill said gap and that momentum will take it to near-term target. If you're interested in how I determined this and you are familiar with stochastic analysis/Ito Calculus then we should talk. Otherwise just trust my word the math is gucci.
This would be kinda crazy if it all plays out lmao, but worth bringing up as a perspective on "meta" or whatever; not financial advice or whatnot.
Bless your souls,
The Alpinist
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