USDARS SUPER BULLISH

Jul 13, 2023

Technical Analysis
Trend Bullish
Weekly Long
Daily Long
10H Long
4H Long
2 H Long
30min. LONG

Strategy Bullish
My Trading Conditions and my Rules(This are the Rules I follow,and they are no financial adivice for others)

Trade Consditions Higher Highs Higher Lows

Trade Rules: Taking only Buy Signals
Trade Rule 2: Only Buy Signals
Trade Rule 3: Exit only, if a Pullback my Stops hit.



Japanese Shares Rise as US Inflation Eases

The Nikkei 225 Index jumped 0.8% to above 32,200 while the broader Topix Index gained 0.3% to 2,228 on Thursday, rising from one-month lows and tracking a rally on Wall Street overnight as cooler-than-expected US inflation data raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is closer to the end of its tightening cycle. Investors also bought back technology stocks following days of consolidation, with notable gains from SoftBank Group (1.9%), Advantest (1.4%), Socionext (2.8%), Tokyo Electron (0.6%), Z Holdings (2.8%) and Renesas Electronics (2.5%). Other index heavyweights also advanced, including Sony Group (4.5%), Fast Retailing (1%), Daiichi Sankyo (4.5%), Mitsui & Co (1%) and Eisai Co (1.6%).

Australia Inflation Expectations Stable inJuly
NZX Trades Slightly Higher
New Zealand Factory Activity Shrinks to 7-Month Low
Argentina Indicators
Industrial Production 1.1 1.8 percent May/23
Industrial Production Mom 1.2 3.2 percent Apr/23
Capacity Utilization 68.9 67.3 percent Apr/23
Changes in Inventories -20633 20148 ARS Million Mar/23
Car Production 53282 54399 Units May/23
Car Registrations 38.6 33.8 Thousand May/23
Leading Economic Index -0.48 -0.28 percent May/23
Corruption Index 38 38 Points Dec/22
Corruption Rank 94 96 Dec/22
The Turkish lira extended losses to new all-time lows of 26.2 per USD, amid increasing signs of a shift to a more orthodox approach and as the central bank reportedly stopped using its reserves to support the currency. On June 22nd, the central bank of Turkey raised interest rates by 650 bps to 15%, marking a reversal from its previous ultra-loose and unorthodox monetary policy although the move fell short of meeting market expectations for a higher rate of 21%. Few days later, policymakers loosened measures designed to boost the lira, including lowering the securities maintenance ratio to 5% from 10% and the threshold for the share of lira deposits to 57% from 60%.

Jul 14, 2023

Comment

Bullish

Jul 14, 2023

Comment

Week Ahead - July 17th

Next week, investors will focus on the earnings results from major US companies, such as Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Netflix, Tesla, and Johnson & Johnson. Additionally, it will be interesting to monitor retail sales, industrial production, and housing data, including existing home sales, housing starts, and building permits. In other news, China is set to release Q2 GDP growth, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investments. Markets will also be attentive to inflation rates in the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and South Africa. Furthermore, the central banks of Turkey and South Africa will make decisions regarding monetary policy, Australia will publish the unemployment rate, and the UK and Canada will release retail sales data.

Jul 16, 2023

Comment

China New Home Prices Flatten in June

Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities were flat year-on-year in June 2023 after edging up 0.1 percent in the previous month. Among the biggest Chinese cities, prices increased in Beijing (3.5% vs 4.3% in May), Chongqing (0.6% vs 1.3%), Shanghai (4.8% vs 4.9%), and Tianjin (0.2% vs -0.3%). By contrast, cost fell in both Shenzhen (-2.4% vs -0.2%) and Guangzhou (-0.8% vs -0.4%). On a monthly basis, new home prices were unchanged, the weakest result so far this year, as as broad efforts from Beijing have not revived the ailing property sector with recovery weakening in the world's second-largest economy.

Jul 16, 2023

Comment

China New Home Prices Flatten in June

Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities were flat year-on-year in June 2023 after edging up 0.1 percent in the previous month. Among the biggest Chinese cities, prices increased in Beijing (3.5% vs 4.3% in May), Chongqing (0.6% vs 1.3%), Shanghai (4.8% vs 4.9%), and Tianjin (0.2% vs -0.3%). By contrast, cost fell in both Shenzhen (-2.4% vs -0.2%) and Guangzhou (-0.8% vs -0.4%). On a monthly basis, new home prices were unchanged, the weakest result so far this year, as as broad efforts from Beijing have not revived the ailing prope

Jul 17, 2023

Comment

Brazilian Stocks Fall to Finish Week on Sour Note
Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index fell 1.3% to close at 117,698 marks on Friday, after a report that showed retail sales in Brazil unexpectedly decreased in May. Brazil's retail sales fell 1% in May from a month earlier, the first decrease since December. Among single stocks, BRF tumbled 7.4% after pricing its stock offering at 9 reais per share, raising 5.4 billion reais. Also, GOL declined 6% due to forecasts indicating a loss in the second quarter and Azul slipped by 6.5%. Meanwhile, the heavyweight Petrobras lost 2.3% in line with the downward movement of oil prices. On the other hand, Méliuz surged 14.1% after closing at a record low the day before. For the week, the Ibovespa went down by 1%.

China New Home Prices Flatten in June
Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities were flat year-on-year in June 2023 after edging up 0.1 percent in the previous month. Among the biggest Chinese cities, prices increased in Beijing (3.5% vs 4.3% in May), Chongqing (0.6% vs 1.3%), Shanghai (4.8% vs 4.9%), and Tianjin (0.2% vs -0.3%). By contrast, cost fell in both Shenzhen (-2.4% vs -0.2%) and Guangzhou (-0.8% vs -0.4%). On a monthly basis, new home prices were unchanged, the weakest result so far this year, as as broad efforts from Beijing have not revived the ailing property sector with recovery weakening in the world's second-largest economy.

Shares in New Zealand fell 15 points or 0.13% to 11,998 in early trading at the start of the week, slightly retreating from a nearly 2-month peak hit in the prior session, amid losses from non-energy minerals, industrial services, and transport. A decline in US stock futures rattled sentiment after Wall Street closed mostly lower Friday, with the S&P 500 snapping a 4-day win streak, as investors digested bank earnings. Traders also took a cautious stance ahead of a flurry of economic data from China later in the day, including Q2 GDP readings, with concerns growing that the post-pandemic bounce is rapidly losing momentum.
US Natgas Prices Fall to 1-Month Low
Colombia Industrial Output Falls Less than Expected
Manufacturing production in Columbia sank by 3.4% year-on-year in May 2023, following a 6.4% decline in the previous month and compared with market estimates of a 4.9% contraction. The downturn added to recent evidence that the Colombian economy is succumbing to the aggressive interest rate hikes from its central bank. Output fell primarily for paper products (-15.1%), beverages (-11.2%), chemical products (-14.7%), and textiles (-22.1%).

Jul 17, 2023

Comment

Most Latam currencies rise, Argentine peso touches historic low
Peru central bank decision due
Argentine peso hit record low of 512/dollar after CPI data
Peru extends state of emergency in key mining region
Guatemala's court excludes top party from election
Most Latin American currencies rose against a weak dollar on Thursday after slowing U.S. inflation signaled a faster farewell to the U.S. rate-hiking cycle, while Argentina's peso hit a historic low in parallel market trading after inflation data.

Brazil's real

USDBRL
, (BRBY) and Chile's peso

USDCLP
rose 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, with the dollar tumbling to its lowest since last April after U.S. inflation readings cemented bets of an imminent end to Federal Reserve rate hikes.

The Argentine peso (ARSB=) fell 0.9% in black market trading to a historic low of 512 pesos per dollar after data showed the monthly inflation rate stood at 6.0% in June, below a Reuters poll forecast of 7.0%.

Inflation in the 12 months through June hit 115.6% in Argentina.

As the country struggles with an economic crisis, an Argentine delegation is meeting with the International Monetary Fund this week to renegotiate its $44 million loan.

Peru's sol

USDPEN
added 0.2%, holding near its strongest level since November 2020 ahead of a monetary policy decision later in the day.

The country extended an emergency state for another 30 days along its main roadways, including a key mining corridor, as a new round of protests is expected to kick off next week.

Colombia's peso

USDCOP
rose 0.9%, touching a three-week high.

William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, also noted that shocks from the El Nino weather pattern could prompt inflation in central and south American regions to cool more slowly than previously expected.

"Latin American central banks are unlikely to look through food price shocks given how strong headline inflation and wage growth in the region still are. So, upside inflation surprises could postpone the upcoming monetary easing cycles, or make them more gradual."

The Mexican peso slipped 0.4% and was set to snap a four-day winning streak, after touching its highest level since early December 2015 on Wednesday.

The MSCI gauge for Latam stocks (.MILA00000PUS) gained 1.3%, led by a 1.4% advance in Brazil's Bovespa
IBOV
.

Foreigners funneled over $22 billion net into emerging market portfolios in June, the largest amount since January, according to data from the Institute of International Finance.

A Guatemalan court ordered the suspension of anti-graft presidential candidate Bernardo Arevalo's political party, threatening his place in a run-off vote and prompting U.S. warnings of a challenge to democracy.

Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund's executive board has approved an immediate $189 million disbursement to Zambia following its first review of a $1.3 billion loan programme.

Latam FX hits 10-year high on weak dollar as US inflation slows
The index for Latin American currencies touched a 10-year high on Wednesday, led by Brazil's real, as the dollar dwindled after a U.S. inflation reading indicated just one more interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year.

The MSCI index for Latam currencies (.MILA00000CUS) jumped 1.6%, hitting its highest level since April 2013.

Most currencies hit multi-year highs against a weakening dollar after June U.S. consumer prices rose at their smallest annual pace in over two years.

Although talks of rate cuts have intensified in Latam of late, bets on the U.S. rate-hiking cycle coming to an end will likely lead to a favorable interest rates differential.

The Mexican peso

USDMXN
jumped 1%, breaking below the psychological barrier of 17 pesos per dollar, touching an eight year high.

Higher crude oil prices also boosted the Mexican peso and top exporter Colombia's peso

USDCOP
by 0.8%.

Copper prices hit 2-1/2-week highs, boosting currencies of main exporters. Chile's peso

USDCLP
added 0.7% and Peru's sol

USDPEN
rose 1.3%, to its highest level since November 2020. Peru's central bank is set to decide on policy rates on Thursday.

Chile's Finance Minister Mario Marcel said the government now expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 0.2% in 2023, revising its forecast down from a previous estimate of 0.3%.

The Brazilian real (BRBY)

USDBRL
gained 0.8%, touching a one-week high.

The rapporteur for Brazil's tax reform bill in the Senate, Eduardo Braga, on Tuesday said that he expects the proposal to be voted on in October in the House.

Data showed Brazil's services activity grew by much more than expected in May, paring some losses seen in April despite high interest rates.

"Progress on the structural reform agenda and the (Brazil) government decision to maintain the CPI target at 3% have cleared the way for rate cuts; we expect a 50bps cut on August 2," said Lawrence Brainard, chief EM economist at TS Lombard.

Meanwhile, Argentine polling firms warned of difficulties accurately predicting the upcoming presidential primaries' results due to low turnout and the emergence of surprise candidates, leaving the October election also uncertain.

The MSCI index for Latam stocks (.MILA00000PUS) jumped 2.5%, touching a one-week high, led by a 1.4% advance Brazil's Bovespa
IBOV
.

World's largest meat packer JBS SA
JBSS3
jumped 9% after proposing a New York listing.

Separately, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a $3 billion, nine-month bailout programme for Pakistan.

Jul 17, 2023

Comment

Most Latam currencies rise, Argentine peso touches historic low
Peru central bank decision due
Argentine peso hit record low of 512/dollar after CPI data
Peru extends state of emergency in key mining region
Guatemala's court excludes top party from election
Most Latin American currencies rose against a weak dollar on Thursday after slowing U.S. inflation signaled a faster farewell to the U.S. rate-hiking cycle, while Argentina's peso hit a historic low in parallel market trading after inflation data.

Brazil's real

USDBRL
, (BRBY) and Chile's peso

USDCLP
rose 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, with the dollar tumbling to its lowest since last April after U.S. inflation readings cemented bets of an imminent end to Federal Reserve rate hikes.

The Argentine peso (ARSB=) fell 0.9% in black market trading to a historic low of 512 pesos per dollar after data showed the monthly inflation rate stood at 6.0% in June, below a Reuters poll forecast of 7.0%.

Inflation in the 12 months through June hit 115.6% in Argentina.

As the country struggles with an economic crisis, an Argentine delegation is meeting with the International Monetary Fund this week to renegotiate its $44 million loan.

Peru's sol

USDPEN
added 0.2%, holding near its strongest level since November 2020 ahead of a monetary policy decision later in the day.

The country extended an emergency state for another 30 days along its main roadways, including a key mining corridor, as a new round of protests is expected to kick off next week.

Colombia's peso

USDCOP
rose 0.9%, touching a three-week high.

William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, also noted that shocks from the El Nino weather pattern could prompt inflation in central and south American regions to cool more slowly than previously expected.

"Latin American central banks are unlikely to look through food price shocks given how strong headline inflation and wage growth in the region still are. So, upside inflation surprises could postpone the upcoming monetary easing cycles, or make them more gradual."

The Mexican peso slipped 0.4% and was set to snap a four-day winning streak, after touching its highest level since early December 2015 on Wednesday.

The MSCI gauge for Latam stocks (.MILA00000PUS) gained 1.3%, led by a 1.4% advance in Brazil's Bovespa
IBOV
.

Foreigners funneled over $22 billion net into emerging market portfolios in June, the largest amount since January, according to data from the Institute of International Finance.

A Guatemalan court ordered the suspension of anti-graft presidential candidate Bernardo Arevalo's political party, threatening his place in a run-off vote and prompting U.S. warnings of a challenge to democracy.

Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund's executive board has approved an immediate $189 million disbursement to Zambia following its first review of a $1.3 billion loan programme.

Latam FX hits 10-year high on weak dollar as US inflation slows
The index for Latin American currencies touched a 10-year high on Wednesday, led by Brazil's real, as the dollar dwindled after a U.S. inflation reading indicated just one more interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year.

The MSCI index for Latam currencies (.MILA00000CUS) jumped 1.6%, hitting its highest level since April 2013.

Most currencies hit multi-year highs against a weakening dollar after June U.S. consumer prices rose at their smallest annual pace in over two years.

Although talks of rate cuts have intensified in Latam of late, bets on the U.S. rate-hiking cycle coming to an end will likely lead to a favorable interest rates differential.

The Mexican peso

USDMXN
jumped 1%, breaking below the psychological barrier of 17 pesos per dollar, touching an eight year high.

Higher crude oil prices also boosted the Mexican peso and top exporter Colombia's peso

USDCOP
by 0.8%.

Copper prices hit 2-1/2-week highs, boosting currencies of main exporters. Chile's peso

USDCLP
added 0.7% and Peru's sol

USDPEN
rose 1.3%, to its highest level since November 2020. Peru's central bank is set to decide on policy rates on Thursday.

Chile's Finance Minister Mario Marcel said the government now expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 0.2% in 2023, revising its forecast down from a previous estimate of 0.3%.

The Brazilian real (BRBY)

USDBRL
gained 0.8%, touching a one-week high.

The rapporteur for Brazil's tax reform bill in the Senate, Eduardo Braga, on Tuesday said that he expects the proposal to be voted on in October in the House.

Data showed Brazil's services activity grew by much more than expected in May, paring some losses seen in April despite high interest rates.

"Progress on the structural reform agenda and the (Brazil) government decision to maintain the CPI target at 3% have cleared the way for rate cuts; we expect a 50bps cut on August 2," said Lawrence Brainard, chief EM economist at TS Lombard.

Meanwhile, Argentine polling firms warned of difficulties accurately predicting the upcoming presidential primaries' results due to low turnout and the emergence of surprise candidates, leaving the October election also uncertain.

The MSCI index for Latam stocks (.MILA00000PUS) jumped 2.5%, touching a one-week high, led by a 1.4% advance Brazil's Bovespa
IBOV
.

World's largest meat packer JBS SA
JBSS3
jumped 9% after proposing a New York listing.

Separately, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a $3 billion, nine-month bailout programme for Pakistan.

Jul 23, 2023

Comment

Trade is open