USDTRY: Monthly triangle forming, fundamentals favor upside

Oct 6, 2019

USDTRY is one pair that is likely to trend up over the long term, but it's currently stuck in a huge monthly triangle. Recent action is interesting since price sits at a confluence of 'inside trendlines', speed fan 75% retracement level and linear regression channel 2nd standard deviation, as well as retracing to the mid point of a recent 'Range Expansion' up day two bars back.

If buyers manage to keep prices over 5.6454, then it would be a sign of strength, since then the daily could start trending once again.
Problem is the swap costs in this pair makes it hard to trade into big trends with leverage, so you would be better off not trading it, but if you live in Turkey you might look into moving funds to USD if you earn income in TRY, unless support breaks down here, then you can probably hold off from doing so for the time being. It's a similar situation with the Argentinian currency, fundamentals of the country make the currency lose value over time...in a big way, because of the reckless financing of insane spending via money printing. A big problem in countries with corrupt governments like ours.

Best of luck,

Ivan Labrie.

Oct 7, 2019

Comment

Strong action today, as USDTRY broke out of the recent downtrend linear regression channel.

Dec 7, 2019

Trade closed manually

Market is mostly sideways, maybe some improvement of conditions in Turkey, if stocks trend up from here. I won't trade this pair for now.