If it drops again below 52, then wave will most probably be over and a new wave is in progress initially targeting $38.
My medium to term outlook is (still) short. WTI's about to enter a supply zone at 52-54 that has held since February. On the other hand, WTI's really close to breaking through the daily Ichi cloud and basically has this week to head south before automatically breaking through. Brent has already broken through the cloud by a few pips. Having said that, nothing on...
Pretty clear by now, Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) have been developing a megaphone-like consolidation since January, 2015. The new lows made just a week ago is positively diverged, without having new lows on RSI which is a big buy signal. Open: 46.61 S/L: 45.20 T/P: 54.11/ 58.77 Dollar analysis: In my opinion, the Baker Hughes Rig count is nothing more...
Short Brent to 52. It seems that Brent is writing sub-wave v of wave C till the shown point at 52 (0.382 of Fibo retracement). But it is still possible to turn up from 56 (0.618 of Fibo) because of trend line (red dashed line) - watch carefully ;) But in that case wave C is too short in theory... I would take short position after crossing red dashed trend line.
Watch to 57.77$ level if broke now (without going up and down) then long to 72$
An overlay of the chart of WTI and brent oil prices over time, I thought it'll be pretty interesting to share this. How geopolitical and the American shale oil boom is shaping up the differences.
Short Crude oil Brent to near 52 and then maybe we go to new high. Global image, wave 4 in V of (V): i.imgur.com
We were hoping for a CL break to the upside over the last two weeks but we got nothing. It's been chop city. We will be very cautious with trades to the downside. So we will sit on our hands with Crude and wait for something to setup.
Oil strongly resists to go down despite ongoing physical oil oversupply. Many would think that 63 resistance will not be broken and it's safe to short at this level. The market will fool you on that. From EW structure we see that the main A-B-C zigzag is not yet completed and what could be taken for a beginning of a downward impulse during Feb 18-22 was in fact...
CL is stil range bound and now has formed a small ascending wedge. This si on our watch list. CL could break for a nice move soon.
Could comeback to test the top of the channel where there might be further clues as to UKOIL's intentions. Targets are top of the cloud on the daily chart, the 100DMA, & for the long tun the 200DMA USOIL appears to be slightly less perky still trapped in its triangle consolidation pattern for now and overbought. Will be interesting to see how they both play out...
Gasoline has seen a crazy rally in the first six weeks of 2015, after a record number of daily declines; but, considering the continued oversupply in both crude and gasoline inventories, RBOB could look to pullback. No longer in an oversold condition on the daily chart, gas has been unable to close above $1.6192, as well as a minor descending trend line. So far,...
CL is range bound for now and could go sideways for a few week. We are still trading inside the monthly trend line and we will favor the upside for now. Watch more CL commentary: youtu.be
There's a strong support for oil at $37.72 and I believe that will be the bottom in the coming months. It is only bouncing given the extreme oversold condition and that does not change the fundamental fact of an over supplied oil market and many more that are stored in offshore tankers. I highly doubt the long term log trend in black will hold. (Temporary bottom...
This is the comparison of reversed Brent price dynamics vs Russian Rouble starting from Feb-2014 (CAD is provided for reference). As it can be seen Russian Rouble rate mostly followed oil prices. However starting from December RUB rate was artificially adjusted. Now it seems it's time for readjustment.
CL played out very well for us. Price moved back into our zone and triggered a long (a small position). We have covered into this spike. We will look for pullbacks to establish a new position. We will post another chart with areas of interest. Stay tuned.
I haven't posted about crude in a few weeks because the fundamentals and technicals simply have told the same story over and over again. Bulls get bullish because A) they believe the global economic growth falacy or B) it's so oversold it must go higher. My charts did not change, and, yes, it has played out well technically to the downside. It is ever closer to...
WTI has played out fundamentally, and the fundamentals (along with sentiment) still remain to the downside. Traders love to pick out bottoms by catching falling knifes, and they're usually cut up in the process. On a risk:reward basis, sure WTI may seem like it's at a nice area to buy. Yet, I think it is still to early. Crude will likely find support at the...