RWA's (Real world assets) Will be and have been a HUGE narrative in this cycle as well as will most likely be even bigger by next cycle and in the next cycle. Quite possibly besides gaming they will also be one of the few sectors that not only will survive the next Bear market AKA. Crypto Winter but may also end up being far less effected by it and or even end up...
"The Fed sees no recession until at leat 2027 and a very smooth landing" They are either ignoring blatant economic indicators Or straight out lying to the public, and the media. As this chart shows. When Housing starts go down and unemployment starts spiking a recession almost immediately follows . If I can see that with no economics background, no MBA, or...
Homemakers are making money over fist. Does this confirm that the housing bull market will continue. It seems like it doesn't it This ratio highlights the housing bottom in the 90's this Ratio also topped out in 2005 before the housing bubble popped #Roaring20's
Building your new home is exciting, especially when you understand how the process works. It’s understandable that buyers are excited to see their new home built from start to finish says Chip Perschino, senior vice president of construction at Edward Andrew Homes. “Our homeowners enjoy watching the home come together, from pouring the foundation to framing and...
U.S. Existing Home Sales & New Home Sales U.S. Existing Home Sales U.S. Existing Home Sales data helps us to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic health in the U.S. In simple terms U.S. Existing Home Sales is a seasonally adjusted record of previously owned homes that have been sold in the United States...
It would surprise many. So far House prices have been holding up with rates going parabolic Strong economies can usually handle a few years of stable rates in around 5% Supercycle's generally last 16-18 years As we saw in the great Bull run of 1982 to 2000 A repeat of this cycle timeframe: would mean #Bitcoin top 2025 (2009 inception) #Stocks 2026 (march...
The chart below is comparison between Schiller Housing Index (barchart) vs Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) balance sheet (linechart). In case you don't know what is FHLB - it's a second to last resort of lender that provides liquidity to US home loan after the FED. Quite recently FHLB is reducing their balance sheet from 1T to around 800B to take out liqudity from...
First time since the doldrums in 2011 The cost of a 30 year mortgage is astronomical Mortgage demand has frozen ... Refinancing has also fallen off a cliff I'm looking for sellers to start capitulating soon ... (as in within the next few quarters) As we start to see the consumer at breaking point.
Macro Monday SPDR Home builders ETF (XHB) This equal weighted index tracks 35 holdings of the homebuilders segment of the S&P Total Market Index (TMI) and is spread across large, mid and small cap stocks. These comprise of the Homebuilding sub-industry, and may include exposure to the Building Products, Home Furnishings, Home Improvement Retail, Home furnishing...
Here is a simple ratio chart of Home price/Household Income, YOY rate of change overlaid with plain home prices. A few things we can learn from this chart. 1. A 4 to 5 X ratio used to be the bottom and top for home prices relative to household income. the ratio in 2000 after decades of stability rose to 6X income. Today we have spiked to 7.7X income. Clearly,...
Measures how expensive or cheap housing is relative to wages. -Base 100 in 1975 -Volatility clean -In USD
I posted this chart back in Jan 2023 but for some reason, it failed to update properly. So I am reposting this chart in a more simple form in hopes it updates in the future. Home prices to median household income have hit new highs at 7.8 times and peaked out. The ratio is now rolling over and it seems very abrupt relative to previous tops. But unlike previous...
The US dollar has maintained its status as the world's dominant reserve currency for decades, thanks to its perceived security, resilience, and the depth and liquidity of US markets. Despite concerns surrounding the dollar's hegemony, it remains a crucial player in global transactions. Meanwhile, China's economy faces challenges, such as growing provincial...
ECONOMICS:AUMR A visualization of how house prices react against interest rates rises other than the obvious divergence where rates get cheap and people will spend more. I haven't made any predictions, there are a lot of moving parts in the system at the moment. CPI being a big one on everyone lips, affordability, availability, sustainability, buzz words right...
Looking at two measures of average home price, I've attempted to show one metric for predicting home value increases or decreases, at an average level. I've marked out some major market events. COVID had inflated home values to an unsustainably high level and the market is already correcting for it.
I can't help but wonder if the software company-turned-covid-smash-hit, is maybe somehow exposed to the "banking crisis". Commodities also continue to show weakness. So if housing is a commodity... well who knows...? Anyway, the fed is set to make their "decision" on rates in a couple of days. On that note, I understand the temptation to lean into the idea that...
Investment wisdom states that “the only bad time to buy real estate is later.” Every rule though, has its exceptions. Current US real estate is clearly in exception territory given recessionary fears, high mortgage rates, and dim fundamentals. Real estate sector is the largest store of wealth. It is also the source of significant job creation. Crisis in this...
following chart depicts the median home price to median family income using the FRED database. Current house price to income is at historical highs not seen since the end of WW2. The current housing market is one of the most unaffordable markets for the median house hold for the last 70 years.