Despite all the hype raised about fed printing 3.5 trillion USD during times of economic stimulus, the real amount of help to economy is much smaller - it is approximately 900 billion USD
The rest of "printed" money (2.6 trillion USD) is held at the Fed or traded on federal funds market by the recipients of the stimulus (key US financial institutions, who...
Some say this week's FOMC decision will be of historical proportions and be the first time the Federal Reserve will increase the Fed funds rate in almost a decade.
The U.S. dollar index is in a descending trend. Price action is floating above the minor trend created by the top on April 13.
The dollar has not been able to see any significant support higher,...
Following the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, gold has seen a massive two day move that brought the precious metal to five-week highs. Worries mount as market participants are beginning to realize that the Federal Reserve is stuck within a liquidity trap.
The minutes statement indicated that the Fed saw risks to near-term inflation (as the five-year breakeven rate hit...
The U.S. dollar index is sharply down, following a horrendous day for Chinese equities that did not spark any "safe haven" buying. The 8.48 percent drop in the Shanghai composite was the second worst day ever for the composite since 2007.
Traders feared that the Chinese government and the People's Bank of China (PBoC) would pull any assistance to help keep their...
It could be said that it is slightly strange that the Euro isn't weaker. As of writing, EURUSD is trading at 1.1040 after seeing lows of 1.0458 back in February 2015. From March last year until February this year, EURUSD was in a very steep downtrend with a range of ~3500 pips. Since then, the pair has remained relatively stagnant, after seeing a bounce off of the...
Since mid-summer 2014 the 10-Year Treasury Yield started correlating with WTI Crude Oil, which can be seen on the image below:
The correlation was established as a result of dynamics of oil prices, when falling oil was perceived as a risk to inflation. Expectations of lower inflation have driven the 10-Year Yield down with the WTI Oil. Market has perceived...
Gold is hated but most because it is the antithesis of greed, which has been feed for years by central banks around the world.
I'll be frank, I was rather bearish on the shiny metal an forecasted $1,035 per toz. in 2013. However, as the charade of lackluster growth and quasi-monetary policy continued, gold's fundamentals are bullish.
It is too simplistic to...
Overvalued Swiss franc?
On march 19th, 2015 SNB left benchmark interest rates @ -1.25% and -0.5% and -0.75% on deposits, to discourage holding investments in Swiss Franc. The bank believes that the Franc is overvalued and should continue to weaken overtime. The SNB revised down growth in the Swiss economy to 1% from 2%. They believe that a stronger Franc keeps...
Traders knocked gold below $1,200 for the time being, as market participants determine whether or not the Federal Reserve will hike the Fed funds rate for the first time since 2006.
The Fed is stringing along financial markets. Either the economy is strong and deserve a tightening of monetary policy, or it is not. The voting members of the FOMC still remain...
To be transparent and clear I am short the market, fully invested. This is my further attempt to be objective.
Bears will justify many reasons why QE4 is not possible. At the very least it's not probable, but in all honesty, after reading Bernanke's SA on reasons for using QE in a deflationary cycle, there is no reason the US will not go the way of Japan, by...
Historically, gold and the US dollar move inverse of each other. Time to abandon this preconception?
The US dollar is going strong, but is it time to change the preconception that a strong US dollar is automatically bad for gold? Perhaps. The inverse relation has historically occurred, but in times of uncertainty, the inverse breaks and gold typically remains on...
(Originally posted yesterday with appropriate charts)
Gold takes a breather, while negative data continues to pour in.
Gold’s inability to close above $1,300 is a mild hit for bulls, but prices will likely consolidate prior to the next leg higher. Prices declined to $1,280 per toz., just above the descending trend line, now support. The likely scenario is that...
I was inspired by a really poorly done analysis showing the current administration's (huge successes) policy on the markets and jobless claims. Basically making the claim about how much further we can still go with jobless claims. Also wanted to play with utilizing Quandl data within Tradingview. So, I took a step back (because they only published the last 5 years...
Gold is up 9 percent YTD.
Gold is on a tear since I warned that negative price action was waning on January 6 (here). Gold has been able to overtake the $1,240 per toz. hump and chug along on global growth concerns. The IMF, just among the bunch, lowered the outlook for growth prospects; and the second largest economy – China – is pulling back, down to the...
Gold climbs higher on traders looking for safety, albeit crude, equities, the ECB or Greece. As what was considered a year for the “secular” bull market to continue higher, 2015 is looking to start the year rather tumultuous.
In “Gold $1,200 – A Line in the Sand,” gold began to form a descending channel after breaking through the previous ascending channel. I...
Gold is probably the most hated financial instrument among the Wall Street elite. Higher gold prices would assume that this so-called economic recovery was not as real as they thought. Given the bearish all-out attack on gold and the well-sought after $1,000 mark, gold has be resilient and rallied quite nicely.
There are a few factors for gold's rally....
I am bearish on the US dollar, and I expect the loonie to gain ground. The BoC is not engaging in reckless monetary policy, even though, at times, traders found them absent. Canadian CPI is stronger - just above two percent YoY - than in the US, which should favor CAD.
The Fed wants a weaker dollar. The Fed said it; Yellen said it. Don't fight the Fed, right? The...
