Junk bonds are typically just that - junk. But, the iShares High Yield Corporate has been one of those crowded trades that just do not die. After witnessing the immaculate short squeeze from 1,864, the SPX staged an impressive rebound. But as I mentioned earlier today (on my InvestFeed - link below), the SPY is looking weak, and the ADX, which measures trend...
it doesnt need much explenations... we broke the yearly trendline last week and the next mega support trendline connects the lows of 2001-02 and hovers over 1,06 what do you guys think about it?
If price closes underneath the combination of support, traders will search out The U.S. dollar’s upward momentum quickly faded, following Wednesday’s FOMC minutes which suggested a December rate hike was “back on the table.” Traders were likely booking profits after the spike higher in the dollar index, which has caused dollar pair counterparts to advance into...
Should silver price in retail demand or economic sentiment? Silver prices have rallied hard since the beginning of October, up almost 10.5 percent since the October 2 low. However, traders are now budded up against key technical resistance. Will traders’ sentiment reject silver’s upward momentum, as it has done seven times since 2013, or will demand spark higher...
In " Gold Leaps Higher as Worries Mount ," I briefly pointed out how those very same institutions that championed quantitative easing policies implemented by the Federal Reserve are now coming out to proclaim quantitative easing added no substantial benefit to the real economy . Gold was pushed lower on the assumption that central banking policy would all pan...
Despite all the hype raised about fed printing 3.5 trillion USD during times of economic stimulus, the real amount of help to economy is much smaller - it is approximately 900 billion USD The rest of "printed" money (2.6 trillion USD) is held at the Fed or traded on federal funds market by the recipients of the stimulus (key US financial institutions, who...
When markets start to price inflationary pressure it is usually good time to buy gold. However if economic data is going to be dissapointing plus crude prices halt their ascent, gold will fall back. Need to wath for crude prices for correlation...
Some say this week's FOMC decision will be of historical proportions and be the first time the Federal Reserve will increase the Fed funds rate in almost a decade. The U.S. dollar index is in a descending trend. Price action is floating above the minor trend created by the top on April 13. The dollar has not been able to see any significant support higher,...
Since 1980, U.S. Interest rates has been on divergence against Stocks, Inflation & Money Supply.
Following the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, gold has seen a massive two day move that brought the precious metal to five-week highs. Worries mount as market participants are beginning to realize that the Federal Reserve is stuck within a liquidity trap. The minutes statement indicated that the Fed saw risks to near-term inflation (as the five-year breakeven rate hit...
The U.S. dollar index is sharply down, following a horrendous day for Chinese equities that did not spark any "safe haven" buying. The 8.48 percent drop in the Shanghai composite was the second worst day ever for the composite since 2007. Traders feared that the Chinese government and the People's Bank of China (PBoC) would pull any assistance to help keep their...
It could be said that it is slightly strange that the Euro isn't weaker. As of writing, EURUSD is trading at 1.1040 after seeing lows of 1.0458 back in February 2015. From March last year until February this year, EURUSD was in a very steep downtrend with a range of ~3500 pips. Since then, the pair has remained relatively stagnant, after seeing a bounce off of the...
Since mid-summer 2014 the 10-Year Treasury Yield started correlating with WTI Crude Oil, which can be seen on the image below: The correlation was established as a result of dynamics of oil prices, when falling oil was perceived as a risk to inflation. Expectations of lower inflation have driven the 10-Year Yield down with the WTI Oil. Market has perceived...
Fed has been holding rates near zero level since 2008 however in the US several macro indicators are on stable path of growth. Even looking at prices core inflation (inf. exc. food and energy) is at accaptable levels. On the short run a clear sigh of September rate hike can bring USD strenght
Risky buy right before the Fed meet. Or wait till after to ride to 84 or down to low 70s
Gold is hated but most because it is the antithesis of greed, which has been feed for years by central banks around the world. I'll be frank, I was rather bearish on the shiny metal an forecasted $1,035 per toz. in 2013. However, as the charade of lackluster growth and quasi-monetary policy continued, gold's fundamentals are bullish. It is too simplistic to...
Commodities have been running better than just about any market recently, thanks largely to oil. Now, oil looks like its run into its medium term down-trend. Commodities are thus vulnerable to a pull back here. However, it will be important to watch both assets to see if either breaks trend. For now it seems that lower oil and commodity prices are on the horizon,...
The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index appears to have broken its recent down-trend, and may be poised to move higher. As oil is a large component of this index, it suggests that oil is also likely to continue higher. If higher commodity prices are in our future, rising inflation could become a topic that impacts US stocks (positively), bonds (negatively), and...