COF is shown on 1 15 minute chart. The trade idea is to play the drop in a bank stock as a reaction to the sticky inflation report and the idea that a rate cut already baked into stock price is about to come off the table. This is a risky reversal trade. However, with risk comes reward. The idea is on the chart. I will take a long trade here anticipating a...
The idea is on this FAZ 15 minute chart. This is a ply on the idea that a rate cut may get kicked down the road and a rate increase may come into consideration as a result of the report of "sticky inflation".
The Australian dollar has stabilized on Thursday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6524, up 0.19%. The Aussie plunged 1.75% a day earlier after US inflation accelerated and beat expectations. US inflation has hit a bump, as March CPI accelerated to 3.5% y/y, up from 3.2% and above the market estimate of 3.4%. This is the second straight...
End of day update from us here at KOG: In the KOG report on Sunday we gave the extension levels of 2365 and 2372 as bullish targets which as we can see we're extending in to and completed one of them. Yesterday we said unless we broke below the bias level we were likely to take liquidity from higher again, so put caution on the short trades. Again, the...
The idea is shown on this 120 minute. With the new sticky inflation data, the writing is on the wall. Likely the rate cut will be kicked down the time road. When is in consideration may be a rate hike in the meanwhile. Mortgage rates unchanged makes the banks suffer. Loan applications are down. Treasuries are being affected. So are tech stocks that have a...
- Awaiting CPI# numbers readings for ECONOMICS:USIRYY on August 10th (today) post US being Down-Graded to AA +. While on the 9th of August ECONOMICS:CNIRYY came deflationary on the other side of the world Consensus sits at 3.1% (0.1% increase) and some to 0.3% increase at 3.3% for ECONOMICS:USIRYY Economists forecast Inflation rising up again on a steady...
The EUR/USD plunged after the hotter-than-expected CPI, as traders reevaluated the odds of a Fed rate cut in June. EUR/USD has now perhaps broken out of the range of its significant Simple Moving Averages. Now we might get another pushdown in the lead up to or after the ECB interest rate decision tomorrow. The April 2 swing low of 1.07245 may prove pivotal....
I wasn't going to post about this one as I imagine it's being covered by everyone what with the captain obvious setup on a basic horizontal but since I've covered the Yen before I may as well I haven't re-visted this chart properly since I made some calls about that blue broadening wedge a few years back and the initial 152 resistance (see the related posts...
Monthly is winding up for a big drop or huge jump. Monthly: Weekly: Daily shows price winding up potentially the rest of the year. So I will look towards year end for the fireworks, that will decide if our pent up momentum will release upwards or downwards. My gut says inflation will send it upward in the near future.
Some weekly consolidation; Possible yields haven't topped yet. These inflection points lead to weekly and monthly trend changes which I will be looking for a potential spike as momentum shifts back down and rates test the keltner channel mid or upper line. There is also a possibility that rates breakout of the resistance (trend change) of this bullish leg from...
Quick update on the charts pre-event. We'll keep it simple as for this, there is likely to be a lot of volume entering the markets on the release, and the movement can be extreme. A lot of traders are expecting this to pullback, and they may get the move, however, they could surprise everyone and continue this move to the upside before then bringing it down. We...
CRYPTO:BTCUSD This is not a trend analysis or signal of any kind just my own speculation about what may come to happen after the halving . as we know the last cycle coincided with the fed cutting rates and the money printing going crazy like brrrrr . although we can expect at least another round of rate cuts in 2024 nothing is really guaranteed this cycle . we've...
What would cause rates to move higher? Inflation 2.0? According to this long term yield chart were about to experience a paradigm shift in rates. If this Monthly Golden cross occurs we should see a bull market in rates continue into the future. This would not be a good sing for risk equites. The last time we got the opposite signal" Death cross" we saw a...
The New Zealand dollar has posted considerable gains on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6065, up 0.54% and its highest level since March 21. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets early on Wednesday and it’s practically a given that it will hold the cash rate at 5.5%. This would mark the sixth straight time that the RBNZ maintains...
I've been giving warnings ever since the c0v1d black swan, and especially since the 25k re-test, that Nikkei will grow wings but here's a seeing-is-believing look at where my 40k target comes from For sure it could go higher later and break this key resistance but I would expect at least one more re-test of the navy blue channel beforehand In theory there's no...
Traders, as we navigate through the second and third quarters, understanding the potential movements of the US 10-year yield TVC:US10Y becomes increasingly crucial. Join me as we analyze the factors shaping the bond market and anticipate the trajectory of the 10-year yield in the coming months. I'm excited to share a comprehensive outlook, encompassing a...
Must-know events for the trading week The week ahead in the US will be marked by significant events, including the release of the FOMC meeting minutes and March inflation data. Alongside the meeting minutes, investors will continue to analyze speeches from various Fed officials: Recent remarks from Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari...
I've been saying for some time now that Dow Jones has _no_ relevant resistance till 40k and now here we are If that resistance fades quickly then the next relevant resistance is at 45k and probably most retailers will come up with excuses to short it the whole way there also "But how did you come up with that number?" See for yourself heh this is a very clear...