GBPAUD: 1. SterlingKiwi has been aggressively bid higher for the last 5-days on the back of sterling data outperforming last week, broad aussie weakness and a general recovery from lows. 2. Statistically, after analysing the last 16.5yrs of data it shows the probability of a 6th day or more of buying is 1.22% which means there is an implied 98.78% chance that...
AUDNZD: 1. Aussie kiwi has been aggressively sold lower for the last 8/9 days, with the bullday being only 4pips higher (pretty much 9 straight days of selling) and most recently the last 4 days have been pure consecutive closes lower. 2. Statistically, after analysing the last 16.5yrs of data it shows the probability of a 5th day or more of selling is 3% which...
The market took RBNZ Wheelers comments as largely hawkish before fading off to neutral after interestingly Wheeler mentioned that the current market rate tracker has 35bps of cuts priced in - illuding to 2 more cuts being likely though he failed to mention how realistic this expectation is past what future data holds. I like being short GBPNZD into 1.81 rallies...
Fed Dudley reiterated his hawkish sentiment from earlier in the week today, concentrating somewhat purely on the labour market and its gains (ignoring every other data point since that would mean being dovish) nonetheless this is supportive of USD bulls regardless of the genuineness. As posted earlier, i like GBPUSD and EURUSD shorts - see attached posts. The...
FOMC minutes were neutral-dovish on the margin as expected, with members split on calls for further rate hikes - though there was a general consensus that the Fed needed to acumulate more data before moving on rates (this could be dovish given in real time data has been poor). Several wanted more confidence on inflation, since this is the casewe know inflation...
Fed Lockhart was cautious on the margin stating one rate hike in 2016 only "could" be appropriate rather than should which echoed the sentiment of the earlier Fed Dudley speech which was alot more hawkish imo. This has helped the USD back off its Dudley induced gain, and refocus on the CPI miss as Lockhart reminded the market that " Some Signs Election Uncertainty...
"It's a search-for-yield world and this country still looks attractive because other yields look so unattractive," Mr. Stevens said in a joint interview with The Wall Street Journal and the Australian newspaper ahead of his retirement next month. "That's not something that the Reserve Bank can wave a wand and make go away." The below and above support my bullish...
Fed dudley was largely hawkish on the margin more than hintin that the Fed should hike this year using plural "rate hikes this year good news" and also saying "fed funds futures under-pricing the rate hike likelihood". These remarks seem to be the catalyst for USD buying despite the weak CPI data (as expected) - nonetheless i think this is a good opp to add to...
Minutes were neutral with little hints to further action, much of which inline with the SOMP - if anything it was on the hawkish side given they expect "inflation to be improved by easing" which infers they think policy stable at 1.50% might be sufficient. Though they did go on to say "AUD$ rise could cause complications" though it was kept to a very limited sense...
When looking at the daily for AUDUSD, I believe there's a clear uptrend visible, indicated by the orange trend line. H4 also shows lower lows and higher highs . Moreover, the lower level of the support area (indicated by the green arrows) has been tested multiple times and seems to be holding . These are indicators that the pair could trend higher. We've seen...
If you fancy clicking into events, a good fill on any of the cases identified can provide sustained profit for a few minutes given the amount of volume and institutional order flow in USDJPY anticipating the interest rate decision this Thursday. The market is definitely expecting some relief for yen strength, as Japanese exporters are crying for mercy and Abe +...
Following today's Service/ Manufacturing PMI miss (worst contraction in 88 months - since 2009) the Sterling market has come under significant pressure as BOE rate cut expectations increase with OIS rates markets pricing a 94% chance of a 4th Aug cut vs 85% before the PMI's were released. Further, the PMI misses has attracted attention from UK Politicians e.g....
The gap up gave a tighter entry in this pair. If you didn't short at market open, you can enter on a break of Friday's close or Friday's low, or at market, depending on your risk appetite. Stop loss should be as depicted on chart. If we break down with sufficient force, the monthly downtrend target on chart might get hit. If this downtrend is to pan out, we'll be...
SHORT ON GBPUSD ESPECIALLY WHEN BOE DECIDE TO CUT IT'S INTEREST RATE
1. *Id say a 6/10 dovish reaction by markets, GBP falling across the board & FTSE gaining. Carney seems contempt with a lower GBP and is happy to continue talking the currency lower in an attempt to use the exchange rate mechanism as a leading instrument to buoy UK economic stability (GDP, CPI, Unemp) against the potential Brexit backdrop; thus I continue my view...
NZDJPY Daily – Since the start of 2016, this pair has entered a downwards trending channel which it has followed well. Recently, it tested the bottom of the channel but was unsuccessful in breaking out and is now heading towards the top of the channel which is crossing over with the 78.6% Fibonacci level. This upwards movement is supported by a fairly strong New...
Underlying effect of BREXIT and No IR Hike by fed. will multiply the bounces. TG1: 1333 TG2: 1353 TG3: 1385
This is a simple analytic piece on Gold, Bonds and Bitcoin. After the Fed meeting yesterday, the market clearly decided the fears of low rates and weak dollar were justified, with a very dovish Fed, and gold and 10 year notes rallied (and quickly chinese buyers followed suit in BTC). The interesting part is that gold has yet again broken the recent highs, which...