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Multiple Time Frame Analysis

How I Position Size: sizing positions as an active investorHey, guys. Wanted to cover a brief overview of how I size my positions of late as I think about how to invest/trade a trend. I will plan to mark this video as an analysis video. Middle part of the video will be reviewing my past activity in NASDAQ:RIVN and how that has helped me learn to temper position sizing as much as possible. After the Eleven Minute mark, I take the opportunity to review $NYSE:NCLH. I talk a little bit about what position sizing might look like there as well. Position sizing is certainly the most important aspect of trading - especially as you are looking at taking part in long term trends. The volatility within a long term trend can be quite significant (which of course can present opportunities in its own right) and you want to put yourself in the best position to take advantage of a great, long term move. To me, this means entering a position with responsible size so that you are not exiting a potentially great trade too early, or, even worse, with a loss. Anyway, hope you guys enjoy, and best of luck out there!
NYSE:NCLHLong
by redykhouse
Trade Recaps: USDJPY-LONG, AUDUSD-SHORT, 30/10/2024UJ Bias Analysis: Price corrected deeper into the 1H range discount, entering a 1H OB and confluent 1-sded FVG. The deeper retracement protracted lower at London open, sweeping Tuesday's low as it mitigated the KI areas before entry confirmation was received. Grade: High Quality Valid AU Bias Analysis: Price distributed higher aggressively at London open. This distribution was misinterpreted as a protraction which was sweeping 1H TBL, where it was actually shifting structure to the upside. Price traded higher into a 4H OB, where entry confirmation was received and a short position was executed. This was an invalid trade as the shift of structure to the upside violated my trade parameters which require the entry to be in alignment with the 1H range. Grade: Invalid What I did well or could've done better: - Executed aggressively on the setups during my forecasting session despite a shorter day at work. Focus was good. - Managed the trades according to the plan. - Misread the distribution AU as a protraction, when it actually shifted 1H structure long which did not align with my trade parameters - Took a trade that violated my plan as the UJ loss closed out today, which meant I only had 1 trade I could execute on instead of 2. - I did not identify what would've lead me to be risk off on a setup and was only focusing on execution characteristics. - I had a strong bias towards Dollar strength today, which led to marrying my bias and resulted in an invalid trade.
Short
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
GOOGL Strong Move Post-Earnings. My AnalysisHey, guys. Not going to go into too much detail on the description here. Just wanted to get my thoughts out there on NASDAQ:GOOGL . Certainly seems to have a strong long term trend here. As always, in long term trends, there could be various counter trend moves so always be prepared in that regard. Hopefully this offers some more insight for you as you think about NASDAQ:GOOGL from an investment perspective, or even a trading perspective. Even if you are looking for short term trades in GOOGL, I find it helpful to know how your trade might fit in to the longer term trend (whether to the downside or upside). Hope you enjoy the review, and best of luck out there!
NYSE:MODGLong
by redykhouse
Trade Recap: EURUSD - SHORT & USDJPY - LONG, 29/10/2024EU Bias Analysis: Although price is deeply discounted on the 1D timeframe, the 4H counter trend persists. Short entries were in line with the 1H bearish range and price pulled back into the 79% OTE area, which confluently overlapped with a 1H bearish OB. Grade: High Quality Valid UJ Bias Analysis: Similarly to EU, price from a 1D perspective was in a premium area but with the 4H counter trend also persisting, the bias remained long and in line with the 1H bullish range. After a pullback into the OTE area following high volume news releases, I waited for a retest of the 1H FVG to seek entry confirmation. Grade: Valid What I did well or could've done better - Persisting in my execution of EU shorts despite being taken out on multiple occasions (both at full loss and with partial profits) - Read through the news "noise" and executed on UJ longs despite the volume which could've been misleading. - Executed on my phone and set the wrong take profit area. Had I not done this recap, I probably would've left money on the table (Given full TP is realised) so I need to be mindful of double checking trade parameters on my laptop if execution takes place on my phone.
Long
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
USDJPY Is a Major Sell-Off Coming? Key Levels to Watch!USDJPY has been on a tear these past few weeks, charging toward some key higher timeframe resistance areas. Checking out the Monthly chart, I’m spotting what looks like a major trend reversal pattern. In July, USDJPY hit 162, and the resulting sell-off did two big things: it broke the long-term trendline and took out the last swing low from the previous leg up. (see chart below) Also, on the Monthly chart, you’ll notice that when price broke up through the 152 resistance to reach 162, there was a notable lack of momentum compared to earlier moves in this trend. We’re also seeing clear bearish divergence on the MACD—all signs of a major topping pattern and a likely trend reversal. Zooming into the weekly chart, and drawing fib retracement levels from the July drop, we’re right at the 0.618 level, aligning with the outside of the previous trendline. On the daily chart, we’ve reached what I consider a key SELL zone between 154-155. This level saw a 1500-pip drop in just days at the start of August. With three key confluences now in play and the Monthly chart showing a strong trend reversal pattern with MACD divergence, we could say “the stars are aligning” for this one. My approach? I’ll wait for the price to break above 154 and head toward 155, then turn on my TRFX indicator to look for 4-hour sell signals. Even if the market pushes higher, I’ll be on the lookout for more selling opportunities, especially if we move closer to 160. With all these factors lining up and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision this week, we could see a significant USDJPY sell-off. But I’ll WAIT for the SELL SIGNAL to confirm. If this major reversal takes shape, the price could drop quickly to this year’s low at 139.500, with possible profit-taking here and buyer re-entry, before pushing lower in the long term towards 127 or beyond. Note: This is a long-term, higher timeframe perspective and not a short-term trade. Let me know your thoughts below!
Short
by TheFxAce
1
Weekly Forecast: A High Volume Week Ahead!Common themes across the board with daily rallies that need to exhaust sooner or later and price approaching (if not already in) weekly EPD levels which overlap with Order Blocks or Fair Value Gaps. With an abundance of opportunity in the market, be careful not to marry your bias by maintaining a neutral perspective on all pairs. My Bias for the week is as follows: DXY - LONG EURUSD - SHORT AUDUSD - SHORT GBPJPY - LONG USDJPY - LONG
Long
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
Crude Oil Smoked Again. Will the downtrend continue?Hey, guys. Noticed this evening Crude Oil is down yet again. In this video, taking a look at the technicals and whether this downtrend will continue or not. Oil is in a little bit of a confusing spot, but there is certainly good reason to think the weakness will continue. Hope this video will give you a closer look at the Oil chart and provide helpful information as you develop your thesis around this asset. Will the downtrend continue? Will we get a counter trend move? It will be interesting to watch this develop to be sure! NYMEX:CL1! Hope you enjoy the video, and best of luck out there!
Editors' picks
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by redykhouse
3
EURUSD Reversal in Sight: Is a Bounce to 1.095 Next Or 1.05?In my last EURUSD trade post from August, we anticipated a strong sell-off from the 1.12 level (see related post). Price action has unfolded just as expected, with a sharp decline in recent weeks. So, what’s next? Looking at the charts, a short-term correction toward 1.09500 could be on the horizon. Let’s break down the charts. Starting with the Monthly charts, we can clearly see that EURUSD has been range-bound for nearly two years, fluctuating between 1.12 and 1.055. Zooming into the weekly charts, the recent sell-off has driven the price deep into this range, reaching two key support levels: diagonal support and the August low, both highlighted in the image below. However, we can’t start buying at these levels just yet. The next step is to zoom into the daily charts to check for any signs of momentum shifting. On the daily charts, the downward move is clearly overextended, and the market is extremely oversold—my first clue that a potential buying opportunity may be approaching. To confirm this analysis, I’ve zoomed into the 4-hour chart, and here I’m seeing divergence on the MACD, suggesting that sellers may be running out of steam. My strategy for this setup is to wait for a break of the 4-hour trendline, then watch for the next correction downward. Once that happens, I’ll use my TRFX indicator and enter on the first 4-hour signal. The target for this trade will be the 1.095 resistance level, as I expect buyers to re-enter here, potentially pushing the market back down to the bottom of the range. Let me know your thoughts below!
Long
by TheFxAce
5