Japan is heading for a recession.
Q419 QoQ annualised GDP coming in at -6% BEFORE the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak had been flagged. Subsequent to Japan's 2 percentage point October consumption tax hike, there was an expected decline in expenditure which in our view will carry on into Q120 growth numbers.
What we see happening
- Macro risk off themes...
Traders & Investors,
Our January call for a bull leg in the US Dollar has played out as anticipated.
Our current view
- Bids continue to remain supported amidst risk aversion as flow shifts to safe haven markets. We see this theme well played out and now over extended. Opportunity to fade the rally.
- Inflation now ticking substantially higher which poses...
The Brazilian Real remains under fire due to a weakening commodity outlook, continued coronavirus concerns and impacts on LATAM/emerging market assets, revisions in inflationary outlook (down to 3.25% for 2020) and subsequent shifts in future monetary stimulus, high gross debt to GDP (~80%) and continued capital outflow from asset markets.
All within a risk-off...
