There is no real reason to believe the bond rally is over. Bullish structure and bullish price action. Shorts will just fuel the gentle squeeze higher.
Price kept coming down inside this down trending channel for the last two years. 1,618 area gave two long entries, first being the most successful so far and second being the most safe and low risk due to double bottom and bullish divergence at the end of March. Major obstacle now, after broke the upper channel line, is the last known overhead supply, that is...
A breakout will spell big trouble for the market. We will see.
SPY has formed a shooting star Doji near a all time high, which is likely to form tomorrow. A red candle tomorrow would confirm an evening star reversal pattern. Also notice the mini Head and shoulder within the larger Head and shoulder pattern. The major resistance and support levels are labelled @ 184.62. 181.31 and 174.03, would be places to take profits at...
1. If breakout, buy with stop. If breakout confirmed, buy more. 2. If dips, wait until lower trend line (support) is hit. If support holds, buy this dip with stop and hold (if worked) until upper trend line (resistance) is hit then go back to 1. If aggressive, can short dip, short broken support.
Energy (VDE), material (VAW), commodities (DJP), inflation protection (TIP), gold (GLD) and bond (TLT). I am not certain why (probably because of weaker dollar, as shown on the chart), given this, current dollar and rate on their monthly charts are indeed very weak so can these assets perform well during first half of next bear market? Only time can tell. Good Luck!
Purely speculative based on 2008 and 2011, but keep mind open. It is riding an up trend right now anyway.
Been following this chart for a while, as a possible healthy/sick performance indicator for stocks. The SPY/TNX ratio is diverging for the last two years now, and If I read correctly this chart, it's not stocks healthy for sure. Of course can be diverging for ages or even centuries in this economic recovery miracle we all live in, until already built in energy...
in 2007, TLT rose several months before SPY peak (front run market top), and in 2008 dropped several months before the market bottomed (front run the bottom).