📌 Turkish Lira for the Yearly Close The strong points of the rally which we went into more detail was an absolute momentum move; the flow was a force to be reckoned with and undermined all sides of the Turkish banking system, collapsing like a house of cards. After 2019 the helplessness of Turkey's Erdogan was quite something. My dear readers, populists...
The USD is being replaced by a shitty centralized cyrpto token similar to Turkey. The technocrats are coming for your money and they show no signs of stopping.
Investors are taking advantage of the cheap Turkish Lira and buying Turkish assets before the Lira is expected to strengthen as the New Central bank governor implements an orthodox monetary policy of high-interest rates to reign in high inflation. Strong buy if next year a vaccine is available and the global economy re-opens.
Technical support levels shown where each time it advances. Fibs are extension of last range and low.
Analysis based on Fundamentals and Price Action. With risk Management you Will NEVER loss. Thank you.
U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira Daily Chart The L/T trend may show an all time high in the corner. Elliott Wave count may support this scenario.
U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira Monthly Chart Has the Lira achieved a historical bottom against the US Dollar? The chart pattern and a possible Elliott Wave count may suggest so.
Erdogan keeps shorting his lira thus has an advantage for exports but at the same time inflation, incoming hunger and tensions with all of the West is bringing Turkey closer to sancions or isolation. No happy times, only problems at the moment. We all home he reasons up and behaves like a human being.
Nothing change.
Nice and clear up trend on the Turkish Lira with many buying opportunities, I guess we'll see some corrections and we can buy when touching the lower boundaries of the Fibonacci channel and we see HH and HL on the 1H chart.
Fundamentally, Turkey is important to stay in NATO , close to EU, supported by Germans, invested heavily in by Europeans and others. Negotiations with Greece will commence (starting in 2 weeks) and after all Turkey has nothing to lose and lot to gain from East Mediterranean Natural gas resources. Take this from a Greek like me, emotions are not good when you...
🔸 Ceilings and profit taking I am starting to unwind partials in the USDTRY longs with all of these moves so full of energy in the current chapter it wont be long until the retailers and bloomberg crowd are on board. There is lots of thunder and lightening across the global economy, Turkey will catch more than the sniffles but it is prudent we stick to the plan...
📌 The capitulation After PA in December 2018 showed us the basing formation it has been all 'one way trafffic' This may lead you to wonder why it is so important to understand the fundamentals and definition of current capital flows, because it is then possible to build one's whole swing around a macro fundamentally sound trade idea, that underpins the...
Buyers have made the transition towards capitulation. This leaves Turkey with a huge problem, and the process of the cleanse in local banks will continue. CBRT will defend with its 'customary inventiveness' very soon as they keep a stern eye on 7.8xx. It is an unfortunate position that Turkey are in. We have exploited it for some time and as soon as the...
Turkey is in (continued) currency crisis. CBRT (Cent Bank Repub Turkey) has allegedly run dry of its FX reserves to prop up the lira, which has has been hitting all time record lows vs USD & EUR. As USDTRY broke through the psychological 7 level (and doing so against a weakening dollar at that) in July, CBRT more or less threw in the towel in defending the peg,...
In dollar terms, the Turkish Banking Index is in a long-term squeeze. With the new works that started to arrive, albeit late, after the Lira's compression, we can see that the index can throw itself back to the upper band at the end of 2020 and at the beginning of 2021. The estimated return on a rise up to horizontal resistance will also be over 200%... ...
The trend of TRY is clear, in current situation monetary policy is not enought to stabilize situation. Turkey needs strong physical changes and innovative solutions, because turism is not relable and stable part of its economy. Not anymore and this is the main reason why lira has dropped sharply. 8.0000 - 7.0808 is the range of Lira for next 12 months.
Do you want a long term investment with about 10 fold return in 4-5 years? If yes, one answer is Turkey's Halkbank (HALKB) BUT WHY? You can see if you look at its graph in USD even without lines.