Looking @ a few different #yields (Not shown)Weekly 6month and 1Yr easier to notice BEAR FLAG & the pattern is close to being annulled. Daily 2Yr looking good, breaking out of channel. Hard to short dull market but seeing #bond yields climbing is worrisome for short term. TVC:TNX 10Yr looks like 2Yr.
gm, called the top on the us10y last year as well. (view post at the bottom of this thread). swinging by to actually adjust my public bias, after a few recent discoveries. --- jerome powell explicitly mentioned in a few of the recent talks that the fed is going to raise the interest rates above 5%, and keep them there for some time. what this tells me, is...
1Yr is still holding better than 2yr & 10Yr IMO Still look like they're fighting to bottom, HOWEVER, TVC:TNX has a history of breaking current support level. Monthly RSI looks 2b weakening. While in theory falling #yield is good for #TECH it historically has NOT been good for #stocks
The US02Y has been trading on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the past 4 weeks, closing above it on all occasions. This is a key time for (primarily) the stock market as the last time the US02Y broke and closed below its 1W MA50 (week of December 31 2018), a massive rally on stocks (which on this chart are portrayed by the S&P500 and the black trend-line) was...
$TNX has held better than short term #yields but could this be changing now? - The 2yr & 1Yr are holding. - Of course, it's early in the trading day so we'll see tomorrow morning how things go. - In reference to the post last week on #yield in 2008, we need to keep an eye on TOPS in these #bond yields. It took 1 year at that time before there was a lower high. IMO...
5.00% Target on 2yr Yield using simple trend analysis. The Fed follows the two year, so once it hits 5%, the Fed will also stop tightening.
DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a simple MACRO ANALYSIS on current bond market meltdown where the US02Y dropped nearly 25% within FIVE TRADING SESSIONS. POINTS: 1. US02Y deviation is simple & marked at every 1% difference as bonds rise and fall within the same range percentage therefore it has a rubber band like price action relationship with...
The U.S. Government Bonds 2 YR Yield (US02Y) is testing its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 31 2021. The 1W RSI is on the very same Lower Highs trend-line rejection that it was during the December 17 2018 1W MA50 test! Needless to say this shows that the price is on a critical point as when it broke in Dec 2018, a downtrend followed that...
Was kind of expected to get some bounce from #Bond #Yields. The last two days, especially yesterday, was RARE in yield price action. It happens but it's rare. The buys could have been investors trying to take advantage of higher rates being that they are "expecting" the Fed Reserve to lower rates. We mentioned that most yields, when we posted, were at or close...
Last week we mentioned that #yields cratering like they did was not normal. Currently they are all at support with $TNX holding better than short term yields. The 10Yr has BOUNCED a bit off support. In a positive note it does lessens the inverted Yield curve :D We'll see how this scenario holds. What's happening today is more SPECULATION than anything else. The...
The Debt Market is significantly larger than the #stockmarket so it's VERY IMPORTANT what happens there. It's way too early to see data but, JUST A HUNCH, this is most likely the #FED stepping in & buying bonds trying to calm the markets. This is not normal to see #yields cratering so much. The 1Yr is off almost 3.26% The 2Yr is off 5.01 The 10Yr is off...
Traders, Technicals are still on point. The only question is, "Can we tag our 200 day moving average on the BTC chart without breaking below it"? $20,000 BTC is key. Any break below means trouble. But using it as support without breaking it is technically bullish. Let's take a look at Bitcoin technicals as well as all the rest of the indicators we have been...
One of the reasons US Treasuries, and other bonds, have been selling off is the dumping by Japanese investors. All duration #YIELDS have done well but more so the shorter term. The Inverted Yield Curve has widened over the last few months but has been significantly lately. However, today we see the 1 & 10Yr ($TNX) selling off but the 2 Yr is CRATERING!...
Pull these charts up on your radar. They are key. With today’s spike on the VIX, we may see key resistance and support lines break. If any one of these critical trendlines/levels are broken, much more caution is warranted on the long side. Let’s quickly run through the charts I am observing. DXY - A break to the upside of that macro uptrend (with confirmation on...
Traders, Keep a close eye on this breakout on our fear index. So far, nothing significant has followed to the same level of price movement: the dollar is still under its macro-uptrend resistance, the US500 is still using its macro-uptrend for support logarithmically, and the US10yr/US2yr remains under resistance. But we want to track this closely to find out...
From Friday People discounted the US #Dollar $DXY but it came back beating historical tendencies (usually breaks lows before eventually coming back 1, 2 & 10 Yr $TNX Huge inverted #yield curve =expecting turbulence short term #inlfation may FORCE #FEd to keep raising bit more
Short rates flying (up to 1Yr #yield) Already broke previous highs Compare to 2 (slightly lower than previous highs) & 10 $TNX (chart tells story) #Market trading = #inflation higher vs #Fed expectation of 2% Markets not expecting recession or lower inflation NO soft landing - party on But that'll mean eventual HAWKISH FED Dilemma #stocks or #economy, only 1
Really strange market, the yield inversion continues to grow. This site actually allows price calculations, this is 10Y yield minus 2Y yield. Stock market still acting bullish, but I'm not feeling it.