One of the most liquid Emerging Market currency crosses, $USDBRL, is advancing for an eight straight trading session through Thursday. This is the longest unbroken bull run for the exchange rate since September 2014. It's impressive that it is advancing in today's session given the Dollar is under pressure of its own, but it seems general risk aversion is the...
The USDBRL pair has been trading within a steady 2-decade long Channel Up, which is well displayed on this 1W chart. As you see last time it formed a 1W Death Cross (MA50 crossing below the MA200) after a Higher High, it dropped significantly and that was still a fairly early buy signal on Coffee (KC) on a long-term 5-year horizon. At the moment USDBRL hasn't...
Dolar / Real exchange value during each presidencial mandates between 1995-2021
In this chart we can see the demand growing gradually, even finding a resistence in 5.85, this moving has formed a triangle, and when it break up the target will be in 6.89! The clear accumulation can preventing us from taking stops! By another way if we see a closure under the ascendent line the price will enter into a lateralization or even make a reversal! Good...
Now it's flagging after running up post-C&Hs. Looks like it wants to breakout to the upside.
Probability 1. Ranges from 5.34 BRL to 5.62 BRL Probability 2. It rises quickly to 5.85 BRL, and then if it manages to consolidate at that price 6.2 BRL. Probability 3. It falls to 5.28 BRL, with subsequent fall to 4.85 BRL. Less likely scenario.
Coming into the new year, the reflationary trade was working quite well. In January, we saw a period of heightened volatility that stressed emerging markets. Brazil was no exception. That said, the weak dollar trend looks likely to resume in the next few months, after the positioning shake-out that we saw in January. Many hedge funds are still on the sidelines and...
Deflation coming in Brazil, I see a deeper-than-expected contraction in Brazilian economy as Covid reality sets in.
According to Investopedia , Brazil is top leading sugar producer globally. So , we take a look at its currency; USDBRL and discovered that since Jan 2020, it has appreciated against the USD for more than 50%. This trend should continue towards the rest of 2020 and likely the first half of 2021 too. That being the backdrop, then we can assume sugar price to...
📌 BRL for the Yearly Close This diagram illustrates the LT map for those in BRL and tracking Brazil for good opportunities into 2021. According to my INR maps, again a very similar cycle count which is decisive for profit taking: The BRL now has the attacking position at the highs after completing a multi decade 5 wave cycle from 1.50 towards 6.00. But...
Keep an eye on commodities and South American currencies.
Real is ready for the next leg down, USD/BRL will be > 10 soon.
Adam and Eve double bottoms confirmed, we're trading for the gap fill @ 26.5
The Brazilian real doesn’t stand a chance against the US dollar’s new-found strength and the USD/BRL trading pair is one a steep climb towards its resistance level. It’s broadly expected that the prices would eventually reach their highest ranges as the Brazilian real gets bombarded by multiple fundamentals, preventing it from defending itself against the power of...