Suffice it to say, the duration of the broader market rally from mid-February to the present has caught a large number of traders by surprise, a number of whom have repeatedly attempted to call tops or turning points that would see a major sell-off of some kind and have rued the continuation of the upward trend that has yet to meaningfully break lower. Call this...
Contango rate channel displayed for UVXY. Multiply your VIX projections against the numbers for April and May expirations and you should have a range that UVXY will hit on those days. Useful for knowing when to get out of UVXY options do avoid steep theta losses. Bottom indicator shows VIX needs a sustained move above 20 at this point to get out of this...
Divergencys even against VXV They longer the divergence last, they bigger the opportunity...
Recently somewhere on bloomberg or yahoo finance, some article said something to the effect of... "it's common to have rallies in a bear market" Well... look at what's happening now at the green line (down trend on this 5 year chart) Make sure to look at what TLT and UVXY are trending towards to get a good idea of over all market direction.
See the VXX since-2015 chart for recent actions.
Couldn't break back below that green line last week. See the VXX all-time chart to see where these lines come from.
We've had a nice bounce/rally thing going on for a while now, and look what's happening at the "green line" I predict that next week if not sooner we head back down a good amount. If you want pre-confirmation (predictive powers) take a look at what TLT and UVXY have been doing over the last 48 hrs.
Accumulating my short positions at this time. Long Dollar Short SPX Short Gold
It seems we're at the inflection point once again. Maybe a day or two out from SMAs and MACDs turning positive for UVXY, and these big spikes in block trades are usually a precursor it seems to market sell offs - big players taking profits likely. I have multiple other charts that support this view with OnbalanceVol/Accum/distribution; potential slide in oil,...
One of the other things I'm watching next week (and, in fact, that I look at daily) is the VIX. With VIX at 14.02, a sub-12 "fearlessness level" is within striking distance, so I'm looking to add to my long volatility position in here somewhere, assuming the price is right. The VIX bottom is not particularly "clean," but historically the low volatility periods...
With the VIX at sub-15 levels, premium selling plays are hard to come by, so I can either resort to low volatility strategies (calendars, diagonals), look to go "long volatility," or search for "diamonds in the ruff" for premium selling. Since I not a rabid low vol strategy player, I'm going to look at seeking out what limited short volatility plays there are or...
Lots of people are crying "it's gotta come back!" this week... however: 1. the market has been beat up for a while now so maybe a real rally is underway 2. It's an election year (markets usually go up) 3. fundamentals of economy are actually ok... there are shifts... but US economy is under full steam (except some pockets)
Where does the big money go for safe haven? Two answers: 1. cash 2. treasury bonds So why are bonds going down now? Because the money comes back in to the market. Money comes in to the market for one reason... to buy stuff.
Here's what I'm looking at for next week: VIX/VIX PRODUCTS . VIX finished last week at 16.50. I will look at VIX/VIX product setups early next week depending how the "horse does at the gate" (Monday). If we see a tight range in the S&P like we did pre-Draghi in prepation for FOMC, VIX could drift go a little lower Monday through Wednesday, in which case I will...
If you look at TLT volume and direction, same UVXY and SPY... looks like today's drop is a flag, not a trend day. It's prob. not really time to go short yet.