Cherry94

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment USD: The sentiment has been bullish in the short-term as market is leaning towards 2 cuts instead of 3 from the Fed this year. The trigger to buy dollar is a solid beat in ISM Mfg PMI. GBP: Pound is overextended according to CFTC reports, while the UK fundaments hasn't really been backing such a growth - take a sluggish GDP for...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment The outlooks of SNB and RBA go in opposite directions, with SNB staying one of the most regulators and RBA not considering cutting rates until August. On the triggers side, we've got strong employment data from Australia today. From the other side, the SNB has cut the interest rate, while the market expected Hold with 63% odds. Finally,...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals USD: Light volume during the pre-Thanksgiving trading day - any weak US data can potentially move the market. The miss on Manufacturing PMI triggered a short-term bearish sentiment, another excuse to follow the narrative that the Fed is done hiking rates. EUR: Although the economic data wasn't so appealing, I stick with the strong EUR seasonals (EUR...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals GBP: Dovish outlook (Market is pricing BoE to cut rates in June 2024. The pound is also overpriced based on its yield differenial. Although the currency is quite stretched to the downside in the COT report, there's still some room to decline. JPY: BOJ is currently the most hawkish central bank. JPY is testing lows in COT report, so some rebound is...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamental USD: Yesterday's weak US CPI data provided a strong foundation for shorting US dollar, as the miss in inflation reaffirms the dovish view of the Fed. The expectations of todays labor data (more jobless claims) keeps the sentiment bearish for the USD. The seasonals suggest USD weakness. CAD: Loonie slumped due to big inventories yesterday. I believe...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals EUR: Today Germany posted weak Trade Balance data, so the sentiment is bearish. GBP: Although the rate hike cycle is looming, BoE is probably the only bank that still aims to hike rates. The market is pricing over a 90% chance of raising rates at the next meeting. Technical & other Setup: TC(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals AUD The slowdown of the Chinese economy drags down Australia which heavily exports to China, thus bearish sentiments in the AUD. Today economic data on China is mixed: even though there were some improvements in Manufacturing PMI, the markets couldn't hold gains in the next few hours. Such minor improvements are just a drop in the sea of current...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals AUD: Economic slowdown in China and issues in the real estate sector drag risk assets in the region down, including Australian ones. USD: "Higher rates for longer narrative" Technical & other Setup: TC(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Down Min target: Aug lows Risk: 0.36%; 2 parts: 1st one - sell limit

Cherry94

Fundamentals USD: The US data and Fed's rhetoric hints the US hiking cycle is near the top. CAD: Opec oil cuts along with a few other factors provide bullish bias for oil. Technical & other Setup: TC(RTF) Setup timeframe: D Trigger: 4h Medium-term: Up Long-term: Down Min target: DMA(50) Risk: 0.5R

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals USD: The market sentiment changed, with declining US inflation and Fed's rhetoric of an approaching end of the hiking cycle. Thus, USD declined significantly and likely became overcrowded with bears. JPY: Ueda's remarks - he doesn't sound like he's going to change YCC soon. Technical & other Setup: TR(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals EUR: Hawkish rhetoric from the ECB and rates pricing in a 95% chance of raising rates is an appropriate sentiment environment for the short-term long. USD: Lower than expected inflation release yesterday can be a trigger for the euro surge in the short-term. Technical & other Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals AUD: Recent hike and expectations of further hikes to tame inflation, recent hawkish comments of Lowe. NZD: Although RBNZ hiked the rate, the bank declared it's the last hike in the cycle - NZD should be weak on dovish expectations for a while. Technicals & other TC(B) Medium term: Up Long term: Range Min. Target: Channel boundary + next technical level

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals EUR: There are indeed hawkish expectations as ECB officials reiterated the need for further hikes in June-July to tame sticky inflation. However, most if not all leading indicators' latest readings point to a decrease in economic activity. I believe yesterday's spike is the result of pricing in those hawkish expectations, which is overdone. The...

Cherry94 Updated 

1h 15m R: 0.2% Fund.bias: yes (CN Ind.prod. 2.4% vs 2.6%)

Cherry94

Overview: What's happening? The risk assets have been confirming their short-term weakness and the need to correct and digest recent gains. We can see that most of the stock indices are in negative territory these days. The big technical picture of DXY also suggests possible upward momentum. We can expect the increased volatility in the Forex market in the...

Cherry94

Global view: What's happening? While global coronavirus cases rise to 100 million, the risk assets keep rising as well! DXY remains relatively neutral, as it's range-bound between ~90.75 local resistance area and ~88.75 long-term support. I'd confidently consider trades in USD related pairs once DXY breaks either of the range borders. For now, it's better to...

Cherry94

What happened Now it got clear that the Dollar is correcting, as DXY closed the week strongly with a full-body weekly candle. At the same time, risk assets reacted negatively, tumbling on Friday. Be patient with USD I'm still reluctant to buy DXY anyhow. However, if there is a good long setup in safe-havens, I'd rather buy JPY, which has been historically...

Cherry94

What happened? The year has started with mixed DXY price action. It got pretty choppy lately, didn't it? It seems like the downtrend in USD loses its steam as we're approaching the long-term support on the monthly DXY chart. Many stock indices also tested their respective resistances. Wanna pick the bottom? From first sight, it's tempting to start...