ConservativeOne1

ConservativeOne1

Silver should run hard very soon for several weeks/months....all aboard the rocket to $40 Silver...or more!

ConservativeOne1

Either way I see DXY lower a year from now...perhaps much sooner. I see two basic paths right now...hard to know which will play out...but I am scalping short right now.

ConservativeOne1

Here is my primary alternate count on DXY....the last post showed one more major low before the hard pivot back up....this one shows that low is complete and we are now in the corrective ABC that should retrace 50-61.8% of the entire recent move down....then a major move low follows. Hard to know which of these is correct...but the longer term picture is...

ConservativeOne1

Just redid the count on DXY...looks to me like 106 should hold...a pivot at this level should take us to a lower low on this next wave and complete a 1,2... 1,2 ...1,2 wave sequence...next would be an ABC move which would likely to back up to between 50%-78.6% retracement of the entire move down...so a sizeable pull back which will punish stocks and likely metals as well.

ConservativeOne1

Three major supports converge right at this level and need to hold!!!! 1) 200 D MA (Red line) 2) 50% retracement fib of the most recent move up 3) 38.2% retracement fib of the move off the March 2020 lows to the Aug 2021 highs...to say this is a key level for silver is an understatement!!!!!!

ConservativeOne1

I see a significant change in the relationship between metals and stocks...gold and silver both appear to be accelerating in their divergences vs spx...as inflation takes hold this trend should continue while stocks tank...yes the FED will continue to raise rates...just like they have been, but the loss of purchasing power will cause metals to soar imo.

ConservativeOne1 Updated 

Looks like the DXY will get another haircut tomorrow...but don't despair, we will see a viscous rebound very very soon...perhaps starts on Friday! The CPI (more like CP Lie) will come in a bit less than expected...the pump will happen...and the DXY will drop to the Centerline of the channel...that is the teal colored dashed line in the chart below....the abouts...

ConservativeOne1 Updated 

My longer term view of gold...but note that first we are bearish...near term!

ConservativeOne1 Updated 

TODAY is the day in my opinion...the reversal has begun....yes there is an "invisible hand" trying to hold this up, but the time has come for the dump I have been waiting on!

ConservativeOne1

While Gold still needs to prove this boolish count (my primary count is bearish), I need to post this as an alternate count...this may be what is going on so I present it as a very viable alternate...if it breaks my "maximum" line on this chart then this will definitely become my primary. BTW, a pivot at this maximum level does not negate the bearish count...

ConservativeOne1

They drove it up hard today...a bit further than was originally anticipated. Expecting one more push tomorrow...CPI will most likely come in a bit lighter than expected and everything will pump...metals, stocks, etc. anticipating the FED will conclude inflation is continuing to soften so less chance of rate hikes, etc...the reality is that the pivot is likely...

ConservativeOne1

I see major deflation coming in near term...Gold and stocks will both be impacted...DXY will run up hard ...one of these counts (WXY in White) or (ABC in yellow) is likely to play out. Not sure there is a way to know which...if somne knows an EW rule that make one of these not work please do share.

ConservativeOne1

This was my original count...I am back to it as it looks correct

ConservativeOne1

I am uber boolish on silver, but not yet...I see one major drop coming before the true bottom is in.

ConservativeOne1

This is a tweaked count on DXY which shows where Wave 1= W5...in other words a 100% extension of wave 1 from wave 4. IF this count is correct...expect a hard pivot on DXY which most likely means downward moves in SPY and metals...nothing of course is certain...but we are at some key levels and I expect some fireworks soon!! I have taken quite a bit of profits on...

ConservativeOne1

We are getting very close to the TGT zone for an SPX reversal...50% retracement is just above current levels with the primary pivot zone at 50-61.8% fibs...DXY fell off the truck this morning and is approaching likely reversal zone as well...VIX appears to not be responding to the downside...all tells me we may be about to see the pivot soon.

ConservativeOne1

This looks like the most likely path for DXY which would likely extend the rally in metals and stocks for a bit longer before a decent drop...

ConservativeOne1

I see this as a 3-3-5 correction....we are now in the 5 wave sequence which will likely be quite deep in my opinion...likely back up to the 4k region before dropping hard. Note there is no way to know the exact pivot pt on this retracement...it can be shallow or deep...pretty much anything goes on wave 2....but the deepest is typically 0.786 which is not uncommon...