DaddySawbucks

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Massive blowoff move likely signals at or near another top. We have a three drives completing here near TL and just over the 200 DMA. The usual bottoming behavior is to form an inverted H&S. Look for it. Would not load up on longs here near exhausted RSI IMO. GLTA

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says all. 200 DMA been the pushback all year. Probly gonna dump again to give us a right inverted H&S. The next rally will likely breakout above the 200 and really rocket. Be ready. Short-term short; longer-term long. NB: 0.618 Fibo was 4007 from the 16 Aug peak (not shown). trading slightly above it here, pushback Weds PM went to Fibo. Probly a good...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Crowning again. Top looks like June H&S before the swoon. Christmas Crash again? 2018 redux. Not betting on Santa this year. Massive gap to fill, a gap down will leave an island reversal. probly not a great time to get long imo. Cash is a good position.

DaddySawbucks Updated 

John Murphy Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: Fig 4-10a. I post this every time I see it but most folks never read it. Get it, read it. Best advice I can offer. free here: cdn.preterhuman.net Breakdown of rising TL with retracement and rejection. Confirm 11/09, expect much lower real soon. John says we goin down for a measured move. A=200pips; C>200...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Sold pretty hard this week leading up to and after the FOMC. Getting some green in ES1 at these relative lows. Expect a retracement of at least .38, perhaps .50 Fibo. Given sentiment .62 is possible but unlikely IMO. Selloff likely to continue after a ~50% rally of 80-100 pips. Room below for more oversold. Lines mark S/R. Cannot say whether this is B wave in...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Someone asked me about TZA, the Russell 2k inverse bear fund etf. These inverse bear ETFs DO NOT CONTAIN STOCK. They hold only futures contracts, which continually EXPIRE, like options. These funds are effectively like put option substitutes, they suffer severe, continuous time decay. Please observe price since inception. That is not a typo. Adjusted for reverse...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Can't get any more simple than this. Reductio ad absurdum. Alternation Pattern. Follow the Money.

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Wow what a hammer candle... inconceivable! Saw one of these 24 Feb, same size... gonna get a pullback, but probably not the next day. Loading up on puts here real risky. Some peeps got killed today betting the big gap down would lead to more selling, as every past gap did. Different today. In early trade VIX was barely moved on the big gap; Institutions were...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

The Fat Lady will sing the Black Swan Dive. It is coming. Do not be fooled. Watch the volume fade on this summertime pump. When the real bull market returns, volume will INCREASE with increasing price. Not like this, bull trap about to snap shut on MOMO crowd. Every bear market for 200 years has done this. Massive 50% retracement rally on low volume, "It's over!...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Looks like finishing a 3EW here at 3585. Follow-thru selling possible 10/03 but a lift from these LOTY is likely before lower imo. Final dig down likely coming in October after a weak pump. Still room to drop, RSI above 30 even now. Then Happy Halloween!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Clear three-leg stepwise downtrend. Monster rallies have occurred at 42, 63 and 70-day timeframes. Current decline is at the 42-day mark. Had a huge green candle there before that lasted just a week. Longer rally came at the 63 and 70 day marks. I do not pretend to know how much lower this will go. Observing only how long it may take to pivot. A pivot to weekly...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Rally is done folks. Fascinating how perfectly the 21 April bars pattern fits onto the weak retracement rally to right shoulder. DJI gone off 1K is NOT bullish. SandP down 4%, NQ just tanked > QQQ gave up 15 bucks in a day. Can you say CRASH?! Yet I still see folks putting out ideas about new rallies to test ATH. Buying this 'dip' will only disappoint, lol. Do...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Don't get too happy. Still Bear. Sudden selloffs occurring daily, another big drop may be coming. Not doomsaying, just sayin. Could get a rally or just more whipsawing chopdrop. Might get an impulsive finishing move next week. Consolidation zone. Trade lightly, trade with caution, or just don't trade. Look at these bizarre chart formations... all traps. Cash is...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Bounced off 200DMA and of course FOMC coupled with missed ERs and Hopium drove it up up and away. Broke above DT line but indicators show bearish divergence, price rising while Stoch RSI falls. Trades at upper Bolly Band. as Bad news has had such a positive effect can hardly imagine what Good news might bring! Fed sez another 75bp hike next month. Is it priced...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

The gap must fill. Short not until it does imo. Measured Move projected with price bands, +302 pips for a 1:1 move. Gap may fill Friday. Expect weakness before FOMC, then a stupid bullup as follows: 7/27 1400 rate decision; initial ludicrous pop followed within minutes by a selloff. Price declines until ~1425 in falling wedge. At ~1428 EST J Powell will step up...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Look to the 2020 correction zig-zag to form bottoming price structure. Getting crushed to capitulation in October would be the usual outcome. Timeline for the bear likely will be in the 9-11 month range, bottoming on October or early November. Typical bear is nine months, rarely >15. RSI would get crushed well under 20%. Short -term oversold condition could...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Lotta folks sayin 'the bottom is in!' 'buy now!' get in before it's too late!' IMO it's still too early to ride this bronco. Double top pattern appears before capitulation. Next week could be a real rough ride. Triple witching OPEX this Friday. Indicators say SELL. I wouldn't take any longs yet. Rather miss the bus than get run over. I'm just funny that way. GLTA

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Looks just like Feb 2-10, just playing at lower price. CPI numbers next week can crush this hopium rally. ERs coming later likely to disappoint and guidance has hardly been rosy so far, can't expect much imo. Stupid happy fool rally not getting much higher imo, just another bottomfishing bull trap. Still waiting for capitulation and real panic, dip buyers not...