Dollar has been weaker lately against everything, next week NFP should tell us if the weakness is to sustain or all this weakness has been fake out in low liquidity. Though past trend suggest, gold strengthening case in the horizon but i would be careful in taking longs at prevailing price, rather would wait for bargain
A full blown correction or a retracement, .6900 is due , would enter on price weakness around .7000
If you think 2020 is coming with volatility then Yen is the best pair for a bullish bias, hence i would deem it safe to build on usd/jpy shorts on failure of 113 level
2020 Range : $1350-1850 Strategy : If We break out $1560 -$1570 area, keep buying for $1800 If $1560 is rejected then look for fall back to $1350 Trade War / Real War would take us to $1700+ USA raising interest rates and no new tariffs would cause price go sub $1400 area I would personally look to buy in $1350-$1400 range and keep for 6 month However...
Short term long again as price aggressively dropped down, wait for pullback to psychological level 1.90
We have three great catalyst in the next 24 hrs for some decisive move and spikes to catch great entry. Notably, Australian unemployment data along with GBP retail sales and Bank of England interest rate decision . In the short term a minimum price correction is expected, so strategy is to look for buy on further dips . I am not planning to go short until...
One week for the election, as of now pound rally sustains as conservative majority in election is well priced in. Risk to downside is higher as lately economic data's haven't been satisfactory. Next weeks GDP should give some signs We are now trading at 3 year high, last time gbpaud traded at this 1.92500 level was back in June 2016. Its gonna go down but...
We are in a down trend as it seems, buyers can't cash on adverse Geo political events and those $30 daily move days are gone. Right now even if phase one deal happens, this might give us the buy opportunity. We have seen similar accumulation before, so as the major trend is up, its best to look for buy opportunities on dip, but again a lot of patience required
Rate decision in a hour, market already priced in rate cut of 25 bps to .75 OCR. Hence, if rates are on hold NZD gonna appreciate and even if we have a cut it would be a sell the fact event. Furthermore the key focus would be on forward guidance, that would tell us if its gonna eventually hit our stops NB : Play cautiously as trend is clearly up as i have...
UK Printed negative GDP recently, a Brexit deal might help reduce economic uncertainty but fundamentals won't improve. The long standing resistance more likely to hold even after the last three GREEN monthly candle. Short now and prepare to add more on spikes On the contrary NZD's adverse fundamentals are well priced in rather a upside surprise is likely should...
Entering around 1.88 with tight stops , use conservative lot size as lot of spikes are anticipated prior to the 31st deadline. A Brexit deal or a delay can both present a bullish scenario for pound
If gold stays low, expect yen to weaken as well. We should have a pullback to 4hr 10 ema at-least or to the last broken support
Technical Price action suggest , Down trend is broken and we are above the IChmoku cloud, ideal scenario would be to try a buy on pullback to last resistance level near 130.00 which also aligns with lower cloud boundary Use wide stops and low lot size to save yourself from Brexit volatility. I don't mind waiting for tripple bottom level around 127.00 as well to...
US dollar has historically been strong the last quarter of the year as evidenced by Dollar index. However, we are not seeing poor manufacturing data , question is will we see a series of detrimental data that would force feds to go on a lower rates race or not ? RBA is now at .75% cash rate, if fed goes lower the rate differential should shrink. Eventually we...
Right now plan is to buy as we are on the lower ascending channel, oil supply glut is not a topic for now. However, tensions can rise quickly , also major stakeholders don't mind a higher price. It helps with inflation goal up to some extent. Case for Short : If global economic growth slows down __ We go for sell but at a better price or on a confirmed break and...
Planning to build OIL longs again after tomorrow CRUDE OIL Inventory report. If fundamental doesn't help then we got to wait patiently for spike down and see reaction at naked ascending channels which has been established over the past three years
Upcoming friday we have NFP and with bad ISM today we might approach with a negative tone for US Dollar . However regardless of the outcome , we are probably going to be trading in the $1460-$1500 range. Final bias is to the upside !
Technical s : We don't have major technical reversal signs except for some RSI bullish divergence on Daily However, Its easy to spot a horizontal support level if you look at monthly chart. Fundamental : Good thing is RBNZ as softened its dovishness on Monetary policy Upcoming Canadian GDP need to stay as expected or contract a bit OIL need to stay put or Drop...