With a market as volatile as bitcoin, I like to have several reasons for a technical view and I now believe there is enough on the chart to suggest a period of consolidation and recovery. So what am I looking at? Well for me there are 3 factors to consider, the first is that the daily RSI has not confirmed the new low reflecting a loss of downside momentum. i.e....
This week we have to contend with a whole flurry of central bank meetings - BOE, Fed and ECB...these tend to lead to quite stagnant markets beforehand and a flurry of excitement afterwards. Having a quick glance around the markets, the Bund has caught my eye this morning. Why the interest? Well from a longer term perspective we are convinced that a major top is...
One of my jobs as a technical analyst was to provide trading ideas. Sometimes this was intraday and sometimes these were longer term strategic positions. When it comes to intraday entry points I like to use a couple of indicators at least to give me a potential entry point and for me, my dream duo is the Fibonacci retracement and the ichimoku cloud combo. I...
A couple of weeks ago I noticed the front page of the Economist publication, which had a front-page title – ‘The energy shock’ and it reminded me that market psychology plays a huge part as one of my reversal watch criteria. After all once a market starts moving a lot and grabbing more headlines, more and more people jump on that trend and once it gets to the...
There are a couple of technical analysis patterns that can help identify reversals – some are more important than others, but this morning we note this beauty: - The spike high on daily EUR/TRY chart The spike high on EUR/TRY, not only did it chart a spike high, but it reversed from a Fibonacci extension (1.618) AND we note the divergence of the daily RSI. All...
First off USD/TRY is heading north again. Following a diplomatic spat, the Turkish Lira has sold off again and we are out of resistance levels. So what can we use?? well you can always draw a trendline and see if there is a useable parallel line to draw. Which there is ! at 10.02 and this coincides nicely with psychological resistance at 10.00 (markets love round...
Potential Bull flag on the long term EUR/JPY chart implies this one has legs to run further. The recent move lower by the Japanese Yen is gaining traction. Not only has EUR/JPY recently broken above its very long term downtrend from 2008, but the is looks well-placed to break higher from a bullish consolidation pattern, This looks to us like a potential bull...
GBP/JPY has broken through its 13 year resistance line. Note this is only connects 2 points so is known as a resistance line and not a trendline (which needs to connect 3 points). Nonetheless we are seeing big moves in JPY this week and are happy to go with the flow. This should now offer some support around the 153.50 area. We noted the divergence of the 9...
Bullion Basing? While the rest of the commodity markets have been grabbing the headlines lately, you would have been forgiven for forgetting about the precious metals markets, however these now need to go back on your radar as we suspect that they are in the throes of basing. While we need more evidence to confirm, we would at least suggest that these deserve...
One to go one the radar - Cable approaching MAJOR support just ahead of Fed meeting. So, the GBP/USD weekly chart is catching my eye just ahead of the Fed meeting. It is starting to break down from the 55-week ma at 1.3635 for starters – why is this important? Because I have noticed that over time that markets tend to mean revert to their long term moving...
I always tell new users of technical analysis to stick to the basics, and the very first thing I teach them is to learn the definition of what is a bull trend and what is a bear trend. The definition of a bull trend is for higher reaction highs and higher reaction lows and to my mind the S&P is no longer in a bull trend. If you look at the above daily chart all I...