frodo75

frodo75

Close below 273 is bearish as it is close to the 20% off the Feb peak => bear market boundary. A head fake is not off the table. One thing is clear, if market does not get a continuous feed of fresh dole from the govt, we are heading south. The larger the dole, longer the pump. I am buying calls at 271 (we haven't touched it but will soon). There should be a deal...

frodo75 Updated 

Don't think we will get down here but just in case, 273-275 has provided support recently. Look for a bounce from here as we consolidate between 275 and 295. More money from nothing is in the offing! The market will not die peacefully till they keep injecting it.

frodo75

RSI divergences are great way to pick up market direction change. However, a directionally motivated market can burst right through the divergences too. They are not guaranteed to produce results. It appears RSI divergence may have been broken through by the market. We should be able to confirm in a couple of days. That actually means the market will go a lot...

frodo75 Updated 

Do you agree? I think 290 is key for market makers to limit damage due to puts. They want VIX down to 30 on April 17th. This does not hurt them much. They must be smarting from the whooping in March. On a separate track, I believe Wave 3 ended in Feb and we are now in a Wave 4. Both bears and bulls will be beaten to pulp. Market will want to go down but fed will...

frodo75

Looks like we may have to consolidate in the 285-295 range over the next couple of weeks or so. My "feeling" is that VIX has to get down to low 30s for the leg down to start. We will look pretty overbought by next week. Trading should be in tight range over the next couple of weeks, appearing like consolidation. Big Money is here to make money. They don't give a...

frodo75 Updated 

ES is cleanest representation of the market movement. The direction is clear (see PSAR). Much better read than SPY. As mentioned on the chart, we need to see divergence on the RSI as well as bounce below from 200 SMA before shorting this Fed fed zombie. Timing is important. From the way the RSI is rolling, I guess 2-3 weeks for the market to start turning around....

frodo75 Updated 

ES bounced off the underside of SMA50 on the hourly and is now heading to test/bounce off SMA 200. That area matches the 38.2 Fib of retrace of last leg up. We may have another gap down tomorrow morning. The employment report is likely to be 'good news' and the reason to blast up. A bad report is good as it means more Fed intervention. A good report is good. The...

frodo75 Updated 

A gap in that area. Bunch of FIB 618 retracements in that area Should close EW corrective wave Monday will be down to sideways due to issues with oil cuts. Towards the end of the week, the rumor about more cuts will drive markets up. By the end of this week, we should see SPY at 293 or thereabouts.

frodo75 Updated 

Downside on GE. It was understood that GE would not be able to survive a recession. We sure are facing a recession.

frodo75 Updated 

How do you get the retail traders who are blindly buying calls off your back? How do you entice more bears to buy Puts that will be worthless soon? Gap down for no reason! Bear Trap warning.

frodo75

Three tops with lower RSI usually lead to big pull back. RSI has not topped yet (need to curve down lower than previous high). Watch for this. Next time we turn down, we go down hard.

frodo75 Updated 

Gap up and sell late in the day today? Slow and steady towards 290!

frodo75 Updated 

dailypriceaction.com for information on trading this pattern. Have to hold 294 and consolidate above for bullish case. If 294 fails to hold, look out below! 294 is also the 0.618 Fib retrace from the bottom. 290 - 295 is a magnet for many reasons. I would like to believe we will reach this on April 17th.

frodo75 Updated 

Looks like it.

frodo75

Looks like a bearish diamond in play. Markets exit the diamond at the end of the year near elections.