haug01

haug01 Updated 

I went long on 2 light sweet crude oil futures last night at $44.30. Now $44.81. Good support in the low $44 area. This morning I will enter a position in ERX and a smaller position in GUSH in my 401k. See also chartwatchers idea on this.

haug01 Updated 

The central banks essentially have unlimited power to prop up the stock and bond markets. In the past, Stanley Druckenmiller found that the loss of liquidity caused stock market crashes. The central banks learned from this and just keep injecting more liquidity to prop up the markets in the face of insurmountable debt loads. The Bank of Japan buys both bonds...

haug01

A temper tantrum is an emotional outburst, usually associated with children or those in emotional distress, that is typically characterized by stubbornness, crying, screaming, defiance, anger ranting, a resistance to attempts at pacification and, in some cases, hitting (source wikipedia). The Trumper Tantrum is a combination of fears about US trade wars and...

haug01 Updated 

In my prior VIX ideas, I analyzed VIX value trends. I noted that the mid-term VIX etfs/etns (VIXM and VXZ) tended to trend downwards over time and also lagged behind VIX value movements. After then analyzing VIXM, I noted these observations can be seen quantitatively in the RSI. Note that the VIXM is usually declining with a negative RSI. Successful VIXM long...

haug01 Updated 

The VIX futures had a strong move up after the market closed. the VIX rtfs/etns should open higher. The high volumes also correlate with improving RSI. It is not clear whether the SPX500 will keep falling with increasing volatility going forward. tntsunrise shows a possible rise in the SPX500 to a shorting zone, then a further fall. VXX may be traded in the...

haug01

There has been massive resistance at 0.0099. Watch for a possible breakout up.

haug01

The VIX is now at a 52 week low. This may be a one day event or a several week event. The following data are meant to help guide the decision as to when to buy/go long on the short term and midterm VIX related etfs/etfs. The VIX daily minimum and closing prices were downloaded from the CBOE website. The % of days with daily minimums and daily closing prices...

haug01 Updated 

After a sustained drop, USOIL is now favorable on technical analysis.

haug01 Updated 

There is a lot of Yen volatility right now which can precede a crash.I am long in Yen, Gold, GDX. I am mostly in cash.

haug01 Updated 

The following data is meant to help guide the decision as to when to buy/go long on the short term and midterm VIX related etfs/etfs. The VIX daily minimum and closing prices were downloaded from the CBOE website. The % of days with daily minimums and daily closing prices were then calculated in three over 3 time periods ((the last 12 1/2 years, the last 9...

haug01 Updated 

JPYUSD is following an upward channel. FOMC and BOPJ did not intervene.JPYUSD has been much higher in the past and may do so now. Note tntsunrise and others gave a buy signal on this last turn up.

haug01 Updated 

The VIX (red line) is near 52 its week lows. I went long on VIXM on 7/21/2016. After further research I found that VXZ has higher volumes (more liquidity). VXZ and VIXM do not decay as fast as the leveraged ETFs/ETNs. They also react more slowly, peak more slowly, and fall more slowly then the VIX and the short term ETFs/ETNs. Looking further back in time,...

haug01 Updated 

After an impressive 8.3% rally, the Nikkei 225 is hitting the daily long-term downtrend line.Watch price action here. Be ready to short JPN 225 and USDJPY. I have not opened any positions yet.

haug01 Updated 

PBR is in an ascending wedge while USOIL prices are falling. PBR is testing resistance at $7.50 for the third time. USOIL tested support at $46 for the third time and broke down through that support. It now appears to be in a downward channel. Being new to this, I opened a short position on PBR two days ago and added to it yesterday. Ideally, I should have...

haug01

Charting the USDJPY along with the JPYUSD shows hoe this currency pair fluctuates in multiyear trends around a mean value. The flight to the Yen as a safe haven (Japan is not a debtor nation unlike the USA) proceeded the 2008 crash and started when the US stocks were overvalued and the housing bubble was being recognized. The concern now is for a global debt...

haug01

I bought SQQQ 9/16 $21 call options in my margin account and SQQQ in my retirement account near the end of the trading day yesterday. Nasdaq had broken it's uptrend line and the mid-day rally had failed (I shorted Nasdaq first because it is weaker than SPX and the Dow). A 1.25% drop with no late day rally seemed to support having an open bearish position over the...