ianrdouglas

ianrdouglas Updated 

It's obvious to everyone, but posting it here for posterity. Completion of the head and shoulders pattern, with possibility of a sudden move down to the 50% area. RSI way down.

ianrdouglas

I'd be very interested if someone can explain what happened today to Filecoin (FIL). Earlier today a friend told me that someone (who knows who) had bought — over a period of about 1.5hrs — $2.6bn units of FILDOWN/USDT on Binance. This put the trading volume of FILDOWN/USDT higher than BTC. We were talking about this, and then 2hrs later FIL sees a massive dump...

ianrdouglas Updated 

NOTE: I'm not posting this because I have insight. Rather, I'm posting it in the hope that someone with insight can share it in comments. I'm trying to understand this chart, and the significance for crypto. At the broadest level, when the DXY goes up, it's not great for crypto. We can see very clearly how a fall in the DXY seems to correlate with crypto bull...

ianrdouglas Updated 

Further to the linked analysis, here is a closer look at the moment in DXY's chart that I think BTC is currently undergoing. In essence, DXY is broadly inversely correlated to the BTC chart. But there also appears to be a time lag in the price action. Again, see linked analysis. BTC is currently running around 96 days +/- behind the DXY chart. (I'm not a BTC...

ianrdouglas

This is not rigorous, but I thought it was interesting. Here I put BTC and DXY on a percentage chart and invert BTC. I was looking for the inverse correlation that exists between them, but I started to notice something else that was interesting. There is a clear time lag between the two. This time lag comes and goes: sometimes it appears longer, sometimes...

ianrdouglas Updated 

As BTC continues its epic parabolic bull run, it appears to be meeting significant levels of resistance. Can it break out and hold above $62k? Will it roll back and touch the neckline of the W formation at $51k before returning to the upside? Or can an even greater correction not yet be discounted, despite this latest rally? BTC's current ascent appears...

ianrdouglas Updated 

I thought this was interesting. Looking at the parabolic wave of the 2017 BTC bull run, you can see two corrections, following each other in sequence, that appear to have the same general structure seen in BTC's present parabolic wave. November 2017. Clear W formation, a break above the previous all time high, downside move to the neckline of the W formation,...

ianrdouglas Updated 

No predictions here. Just noting. Over the past week I was working on a macro Fibonacci level analysis of BTC for the entire period from October to now. I saw emerging in the charts a confluence that would suggest a deeper correction than $43k, which is where BTC hit after the initial downside impulse 21 February. A deeper correction would have mirrored the...

ianrdouglas Updated 

A bit of fun, based on an absurdly inane metric: — From the opening of the January correction it took 6 days and 3hrs (147hrs) to reach the 0.786 of the Fibonacci retracement on the downside impulse. — In the current correction, it has taken 16 days and 4hrs (388hrs). — Divide 388 by 147 and you get 2.639. So this correction is 2.639 times slower than...

ianrdouglas Updated 

I'm back and forth on this like a see-saw. The point, obviously, is to foresee present price action. Observations: 1. If (and it's a big if) the current correction will mimic January, it's obviously playing out over a significantly longer timeframe. Roughly twice if not three times slower. The EMAs were more divergent going into the January correction, which...

ianrdouglas Updated 

This is purely speculative. I do not suggest taking this trade. I'm putting it here merely for posterity, so if I lose, I can revisit it later and know that a little information and some guts is not enough. I suggest viewing price action on the 1-minute timeframe. The 0.702 Fibonacci was clearly respected. Short double-tap before the ascent to the 0.786. We...

ianrdouglas Updated 

I'm not posing this as a price prediction: rather, I'd really love for and value if others far more experienced than I could tell me where I'm wrong. In short, I see BTC as certainly going to the downside, very soon. I see an A-B-C correction from the previous ATH of $58k to around $37k. I'm basing this on an analysis of the last two months, after BTC broke...

ianrdouglas Updated 

The Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC is nudging on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level if we assume that the base is located on the same level as 4 February, when the crypto total market cap including BTC reached the $1T threshold. This would seem a logical value to retest, and aligns on the BTC chart with $37k. As BTC edges towards its own 0.786 level...

ianrdouglas Updated 

Obviously, this is not technically robust. Even to make the visual comparison, the two are on different timescales. It just occurred to me how similar, at a basic level, the two charts are. On the left, the opening days of the 2017 retracement. On the right, where we are now. 2017 took a strong turn to the downside after touching the 0.786 Fibonacci. My...

ianrdouglas Updated 

On the daily chart, the upward impulse that led to the January ATH of $42k started 16 December. We have the advantage of knowing already the full retracement pattern of January. Within that frame it did a perfect 0.786 bounce to the upside, before reaching its lowest level 22 January. This then segued into a consolidation phase between 23 and 26 January,...

ianrdouglas Updated 

I could be totally wrong on this, but I would be cautious about trading the inverse head and shoulders on the BTC chart. If my previous analysis is correct, the neckline is too close to what I think is the 0.786 level of the entire retracement we're currently in. In my view, $54-55k will hold. Interestingly, we saw a smaller head and shoulders within the larger...

ianrdouglas Updated 

Here I'm extrapolating what I'm seeing happening in the BTC chart, extended to the weekly chart for Crypto Total Market Cap (TMC). We're seeing two proximate waves: January and February. This follows a longer ascent from a breakout 19 October and a close 26 October above the previous resistance line at $375B, tested 10 August and 17 August. If we use the...