merkd1904

merkd1904 Updated 

Chart is pretty self explanatory. All just sitting here checking our watches restless as ever. The market knows this, and will burn as much time off the clock as possible, but it's inevitable. Time is the second most important aspect to price on a chart, can't hide from it forever. Happy trading everyone. Punji pits and land mines. Keep your heads...

merkd1904 Updated 

Chinese indexes officially in a bear market. European and American Indexes starting to print possible topping patterns as well. Was China the Canary? Today I wanted to do things a little different so outside of our standard price action analysis from Friday I also take you guys through a full trend, pitch, fib and time analysis from our breakout into the...

merkd1904 Updated 

As I prep for my daily videos sometimes I come across patterns that give me pause. Like the recent diamond top we had in the oil markets (/CL). Or the H&S that yeeted BTC to its current churn of hell. And although this is minor in the grand scheme, it still holds an inextricable link to our next few weeks of price action. Currently printing is a minor...

merkd1904

Chart is self explanatory. Happy trading

merkd1904 Updated 

Recently i did a post on reddit detailing how NDX is historically overbought. NDX has only breached 80 on the monthly RSI 9 times prior to our current prices. Each time resulted in at least a 9.5% pullback and upwards of 30-40% bear markets one some occasions. I also outlined how NDX is in the intermediate term extremely overstretched. From the moving...

merkd1904 Updated 

NDX bounced off of the channel trendline after losing buyer support at new ATH's posted after its breakout and subsequent 9.5% leg higher in just as many trading days. This last leg down was over a .786 retrace, and the bulls pulled it back from the brink and tacked on a 4% and almost exactly a 50% retrace from Thursday's overnight lows and it seems like old...

merkd1904

That would also lead to the break of a rising wedge. Measured move for the diamond top brings price into support at 4141.75. I'd expect a bounce here either during the cash or overnight session and then a continuation into the measured move for the rising wedge break at or around support at 4071. This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion...

merkd1904

This implies a 36% or $17,624 move lower. It already broke the neckline and retested over the past two days.

merkd1904 Updated 

have closed above the 5 period EMA. I have never seen anything like this. And the one that did close below, only closed below by .3. This has to be the most ridiculous example of machine controlled market mechanics, and I'm struggling to understand why. Our largest negative hourly candle on SPX since 03/31 is .21% .

merkd1904

So yesterday the market was blown away by the fact that the Fed was going to do what it says it was going to do. And, in the market's defense Jpow did go up to the podium and essentially lie through his teeth in an attempt to assuage markets into thinking that inflation will be "transitory" and that they're still on track for their first hike in 2023, even...

merkd1904 Updated 

And you just traded it. Regardless of your position on the events of the past week it has been legendary. I've been a member of R/WallStreetBets since 2017. Back when it had around 500,000 subscribers. And back then it was legitimately a place where you could get quality DD. See some ridiculous literal bets, and talk about hookers and blow. But since then it has...

merkd1904

Honestly. I've been someone who's been essentially trying to fade the move from the March lows compulsively. But, now that the bears have had at least two, perfectly prime, chances to take us lower instead they printed a symmetrical triangle that we broke out of on SPX, DJI (which was a channel/flag), and IWM/RUT which was obviously breaking to new highs. The...

merkd1904

Almost. Today we may have seen the bottom start to fall out in key support levels of the names and the index that got us to the highs in general. Meaning we could be in store for the C leg after all. But this comes with a caveat. The the past 2-3 weeks have been uncharacteristic for the market basically over the course of the past year or two. We've seen a...

merkd1904

So this will be a one off post from my daily posts i do.. elsewhere. We all know that one belligerent, bombtastic, annoying person right? Either the drunk, the partisan, or just plain abrasive? That's the market right now. Today we saw SPX and SPY gain starting from futures open last night, to today ending with a gain of 1.54% or over 50 points. On no news, no...

merkd1904

You don't have to be bearish to be frustrated with this market. In this low volume, seemingly automated market it's incredibly hard to do any decent trading, specifically on the indexes unless you literally just long on monday and close on Friday. Which is 100% counter intuitive to actively trading in general. It shouldn't be easy. And it sure as hell shouldn't...

merkd1904

Since this marks "the fastest bear to bull market in history" i'm going to be posting my full commentary. Full Retace. SPX and SPY new All Time Highs. New bull market. Every major news service with the "hits record" push notification and headline. All the fun stuff. SPX bulls out there popping champagne. But we still have historically low volume, and mixed...

merkd1904

Econ data is getting better with jobless claims printing less than a million in the first time in 21 weeks (that's insane when you actually think about it). Stimulus talks are non existent. We're less than 1% away from ATH's on SPY/SPX. And we're starting to show mixed signals in the indexes. Some bearish, some bullish. But what is becoming obvious is we're...

merkd1904

Invalid. That's what the market just said to the bears and their pesky reversal candles. And on most of the indexes that's true. Last night we had Asia get the bull party started once they all the sudden saw US indexes on sale and bid us up, and then the Europeans jumped on that train as well. And sure enough. We had a full retrace and then some in SPY, DJI,...