monkia

monkia Updated 

If you have been following my earlier posts ( OMGUSD on the back of OMGBTC. Key decision time coming soon.... and 500% return and 5 other reasons you should buy OMG ) you'll know I am a big fan of OMG because both the technical and fundamentals stack up. Of the 15 or so blue chip coins (top 50) that I track it is the best performing in Feb, even being up...

monkia Updated 

If you were following an earlier post you would have seen that my conviction was that we were heading to 8.2k to complete the Y leg of the corrective structure down from 11.5k. BTC had different plans and put in a very lacklustre ABCDE triangle corrective pattern, going only slightly lower than the W wave. This means we have not even corrected to the 0.5 Fib...

monkia Updated 

Trading corrections is always challenging because of the complexity of structures that are available for the analyst to select from. There's probably two broad views at the moment in terms of EW theory. 1) We have completed wave 3 up to 11.8k and are now the corrective wave 4. This invalidates if the wave 1 high of 9053 is breached. 2) We have completed the 5...

monkia Updated 

I recently sold at the top ( Trading the potential bear trap at 12k ) and went long again at the bottom of this retrace at 9.6k ( Trading the corrective wave ). My original plan was to sell this long position at 11k. I am now reviewing my plan to make sure this still makes sense. What has happened so far? We completed the 5 waves up to 11.8k. My conviction...

monkia Updated 

If you have been following my posts ( Trading the potential bear trap at 12k and Managing risk in a key area ) you'll see that I have been concerned of risks around the 11.5-12k area. I still believe that a significant retrace or double bottom will help this market bounce back more quickly and go on to 50k in Q2 but I am mindful that this may not happen. ...

monkia

BTC has been the king for a long while and continues to drag the market around by the scruff of its neck. Some say LTC led this recovery, but as shown in a post I recently shared, the data does not support this belief. I have long term core holdings in BTC, ETH, BCH and OMG and will balance these around once a month to react to any medium term (2-4 week) trends....

monkia Updated 

Since my post ETHUSD - Q1 2018 best buy "backed by history" , I have had several people PM to ask whether to buy now or wait for a dip in ETHBTC. I think that question really depends on whether you think we have completed wave 3 in ETHBTC or not. Whilst the three bull periods share a lot in common, there are differences which make it difficult to be clear on...

monkia Updated 

So far so good with BTCUSD. If you have been following my earlier post , you will see it has made gradual progress up to our key area between 11.5k-11.8k. In the last few hours it has been rejected twice and is currently on the third attempt. This could well just be a pause and consolidation before it breaks through, like we saw recently in the 11k and 11.5k...

monkia Updated 

BTC has been going great guns the last 10 days, quickly making us forget that even by BTC standards, we are in the mother of bear runs. Most agree that we are entering a crucial period formed by the convergence of several key areas around the 11.5-12k area, in order of importance: - Diagonal down resistance line formed from 20k ATH and 17k bear trap - 1D...

monkia Updated 

Whilst I buy the opportunity in OMGUSD, the important chart for me is the bottom OMGBTC as this is what is driving my technical analysis. I tend to go to BTC and cash during corrections to make it easier to manage and it has historically performed best out of all the coins in these times. As the correction *potentially* begins to end, I want to know if I'm best...

monkia Updated 

If you were following my earlier post , you'll see that we bought the H&S breakout once it had retraced and rejected the neck line. We had a few interesting moments on the way to opening this trade, at one point being close to pulling the trigger on a sell. This update outlines my plans for managing this trade by building on the mantra, "stop your losses...

monkia Updated 

If you have been following my post ETHUSD - Q1 2018 best buy backed by history and ETHUSD to enter large leg 3 impulse driven by reversal on ETHBTC , you'll see that I am very bullish ETH because of where I see it trading vs BTC over the coming 90 days. I tend to go to BTC during corrections to make it easier to manage and it has historically performed best...

monkia Updated 

I feel a little schizophrenic at the moment. One minute I'm calling that a revisit to $6k is less likely, the next minute sentiment has changed and it's back on the cards. This is not surprising. We are in an area of balance, trading between $8k and $9k. A break below $7.7k will signal the bears are still in control and a break above $9.5k will signal that the...

monkia Updated 

For those of you following, I'm long ETH and BTC and sitting on some cash, waiting for the right opportunity to buy in more. I think we could be in a 1-5 impulse wave back up and so I am trying to find localised trades that allow me to buy in with a local target profit which I could then choose to leave go if the price action looks good. I am also mindful that...

monkia Updated 

Short term bad news for the bulls, it looks like we are heading for a retrace back to $6000. IF we stop at $6000 or $7250, medium term this will help establish a bottom or higher low and could move to a more aggressive bounce bull trend. My plan is to wait for this pull back to go a bit further, probably to the 1HR 50EMA ($8200) but maybe the 4HR ($8300). I'll...

monkia Updated 

An Ascending Triangle (AT) is potentially forming. Volume is dropping, which is also supports the likelihood of its formation. ATs are typically continuation formations, so the likelihood is that this will break up but it also presents me with a short opportunity if it breaks down. If you read through my post BTCUSD - 5 reasons I'm calling a reversal now you...

monkia Updated 

1. Volume up (not just the odd spike but hourly for the past 12+ hours) 2. Sustained RSI divergence on 1 hour chart 3. RSI oversold on all time frames over 4 hours 4. Most EW agree we are in the final wave 5 of an impulse down 5. SEC hearing at 3pm as the 'news' catalyst where we will see regulation helping to make the crypto space more...

monkia Updated 

When I concluded the ETH analysis above from 2015, I almost fell off my chair. In my opinion it presents the best risk reward opportunity in the cryto space in Q1 2018. Focus on the bottom ETHBTC chart as this is the real driver of ETHUSD. Some background Those of you that have followed me for a while know that I initially got into ETH back in January of 2017...