Bearish pennant breakdown confirmed. Targeting 1.067 for today.
Oil fooled me this week. The technicals screamed bullish after the monster move up on 11/3. I bailed on my puts and took a small speculative position in calls at the worst time. Yesterday, near the close, I threw the towel in on the Oil calls and opened calls for FB earnings - the only good call on Oil I made this week! Now that we're sitting about unchanged since...
We have a slew of overnight Euro Zone data releases that could catalyze Euro's next leg lower. 4:00am - ECB Economic Bulletin 4:10am - EZ PMIs 5:00am - ECB Economic Growth Estimates 6:45am - Draghi Speech
Today's price action post NYMEX close felt very weird. It seemed a rare occurrence to reverse intraday, sell off into the NYMEX close and continue to sell off through the API report, which was largely in line with expectations. I looked back at the past 20 NYMEX closes and couldn't spot a corollary. However, I also couldn't find enough similarities between other...
Today's oil price action has me confounded. Anecdotally - I'll perform the analysis afterwards, just want to get my thoughts down, it's been quite some time since we've seen intraday reversals, downside momentum into the NYMEX close and sizeable post-NYMEX close moves lower. While, a bull case macro story doesn't exist, you have to trade the market you're given....
Oil's shifted from tracking EUR to SPX. With Draghi on the tape w/ dovish comments, we're seeing a slight decoupling w/ SPX and movement toward EUR on the 15min. I would buy oil into the API number on this weakness. Still targeting 49 in the VERY near-term.
As I've previously mentioned many times, Draghi has made it easy to be short Euro again! Stick with easy trades! Euro bounced far higher and much faster than I expected last week. Reality has set back in and the Euro should re-test prior lows. Watch for support at 1.09375 and the prior low at 1.08958. I'm targeting the middle of my "Target Range" at 1.0865.
As I've previously mentioned many times, Draghi has made it easy to be short Euro again! Stick with easy trades! While Euro bounced far higher and much faster than I expected last week, reality has set back in and the Euro should re-test prior lows. Watch for support at 1.09375 and the prior low at 1.08958. I'm targeting the middle of my "Target Range" at 1.0865.
I expected a modest retracement in Euro after the Fed's "surprise" hawiksher statement, but certainly not a 100% retracement! Sell Euro! Sell Euro! Yes, the European macro data surprised - marginally so, to the upside, and yes, the US macro data has continued to disappoint. However, these are merely distractions. In the immediate term , we have a massive...
Oil hasn't been able to hold the ~46 level all week. Watch for a retest of the 45 support level later today.
I've been an unrelenting dollar bull (for better, and for worse) since two summers ago. The thesis has broadly been predicated on three things: (1) ECB QE (2) anticipation of Fed rate hikes and (3) a massive falling wedge pattern. While it has taken much longer than anticipated for the ECB to finally ease, and while we still have yet to see the Fed raise rates, an...
Since Wednesday's European open we've seen USD lag and Euro rise challenging Tuesday's morning's high of 1.1079. The important question is whether or not the bullish trendline resistance from the March lows holds or not. This morning's Euro bid is likely due to the market's near unanimous expectation for Fed Funds to remain unchanged and in my opinion,...
Beginning with the late night strengthening of JPY and exacerbated by weak US durable goods numbers and a 2% decline in the Baltic Dry Freight index, crude has continued its march lower - hitting my target of 42.75 just before 9:30am. The move was much swifter than I expected. Technically, below 42.72 we should see a move lower to the 1.272 fib ext at 41.81....
After crude’s swift descent and subsequent breach of my 42.75 target during Tuesday’s 10am hour - 9am, 10am and 2pm are truly magical hours for oil traders, I commented that I would watch for signs of a reversal and likely stay short up until the API print. Around 10:30am, we saw a spike lower in crude followed by a powerful reversal. I opted not to trade....
Having dropped 388bps since Draghi's press conference, Monday's rebound is entirely reasonable. That said, last week's move dealt severe technical damage and the bounce appears to be over. During Monday's European session, we saw Euro grind higher, maxing out at 1.1055. During US trading, new highs were made during the noon and 1pm hours. However, both attempts...
Crude prices have broken down, again. The macro story hasn't changed since last November: there's simply too much oil (both today and expected in the future) to balance with current and future demand. Oil is now produced/stored in sustained volume in a diversity of geographic locations that the so called "war premium" is really no longer relevant. With the...
The ECB has to expand QE. We've seen: Decelerating economic data, led by Germany Abysmal and worsening inflation expectations Persistently stronger Euro (ECB is VERY keen to see weaker Euro. They sold Germany on QE b/c of Euro strength) Yesterday, we saw bleak Eurozone lending survey data, to boot I expect Draghi to, at a minimum, hint at expanded QE -...
Since August's massive move lower, the index has trended higher and is poised to take out the Sept 17 high of 2021. With today being the last day before China comes back on line and given the strength of the overnight "risk-on" EM complex trade, I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong move higher today. Watch the psychologically important level of 2000 where...