AMD - PRICE ACTION / VOLATILITY / VIRUS / SUPPLY CHAINS/ HEDGING
0. Notes;
Comment:
2. Now in the theme of Robinhood, I have tried to provide those on here who read and follow with some insights on mostly AMD stock, but also:
Symbol
AAPL Apple
ABBV Abbvie Pharm
ADBE Adobe
AMAT Applied Materials
AMD Advanced Micro Devices
AMZN Amazon
AXP American Express
BABA Alibaba Group
COST Costco
CRM Salesforce
DDOG Data Dog
DIS Disney
GLD Gold
GOOG Google
INTC Intel
INTU Intuit
LHX L3 Harris Tech
LK Luckin Coffee
LRCX Lam Research Group
MRVL Marvell Tech Group
MSFT Microsoft
MU Micron Tech
NVDA Nvidia Corp
QQQ QQQ
RTN Raytheon Group
SBUX Starbucks
SQ Square
V Visa
WMT Walmart
Symbol
AAPL Apple
ABBV Abbvie Pharm
ADBE Adobe
AMAT Applied Materials
AMD Advanced Micro Devices
AMZN Amazon
AXP American Express
BABA Alibaba Group
COST Costco
CRM Salesforce
DDOG Data Dog
DIS Disney
GLD Gold
GOOG Google
INTC Intel
INTU Intuit
LHX L3 Harris Tech
LK Luckin Coffee
LRCX Lam Research Group
MRVL Marvell Tech Group
MSFT Microsoft
MU Micron Tech
NVDA Nvidia Corp
QQQ QQQ
RTN Raytheon Group
SBUX Starbucks
SQ Square
V Visa
WMT Walmart
Comment:
LOTS OF SUPER CALLS FROM THE PREDICTION COMPANY
All winners, all tradeable, and we started an account on August 1st 2019, with $7500US, and now there is over $250,000K US in this account. About 10 percent of our ideas were posted on here.
All winners, all tradeable, and we started an account on August 1st 2019, with $7500US, and now there is over $250,000K US in this account. About 10 percent of our ideas were posted on here.
Comment:
CORRECTION
Now I know this was unfortunate and a lot of people got hurt, but this have been very volatile, and v-shaped to this point. Unless you LOADED THE BOAT, with time sensitive TSLA options that expire in 2 days, then you should be fine. If you got smoked, we would love to know how this happened. Tell us. Maybe we can help you personally increase your capital with some short term trades.
We saw this coming. You all did. Too fast, too furious, Paul Walker (loved him - RIP), things blew up on the track, and someone died.
Now I know this was unfortunate and a lot of people got hurt, but this have been very volatile, and v-shaped to this point. Unless you LOADED THE BOAT, with time sensitive TSLA options that expire in 2 days, then you should be fine. If you got smoked, we would love to know how this happened. Tell us. Maybe we can help you personally increase your capital with some short term trades.
We saw this coming. You all did. Too fast, too furious, Paul Walker (loved him - RIP), things blew up on the track, and someone died.
Comment:
VOLATILITY
Stay away from any volatility products, unless you are a pro. If you a a pro in trading volatility, you are surely not reading this, you are sitting next to me is near me, in our office.
UVXY, VXX, TVIX, ALL BAD.
Now you know if you looked at the chart of the VVIX.IN (Volatility on the Volatility Index), that final 100+ rise did signal the correction. It always has since it's invention with a high correlation.
Stay away from any volatility products, unless you are a pro. If you a a pro in trading volatility, you are surely not reading this, you are sitting next to me is near me, in our office.
UVXY, VXX, TVIX, ALL BAD.
Now you know if you looked at the chart of the VVIX.IN (Volatility on the Volatility Index), that final 100+ rise did signal the correction. It always has since it's invention with a high correlation.
Comment:
The only thing I would even think about is shorting volatility and that can be accomplished with a bear put spread, and I you need short strikes, and that is volatility on already massive volatility and you can blow up your trading account in 15 minutes with these products.
We did 1000 shares on the UVXY on Feb 19th or so, in a Married Put, and we made over $10000 just on this trade, and we still have it going!
We did 1000 shares on the UVXY on Feb 19th or so, in a Married Put, and we made over $10000 just on this trade, and we still have it going!
Comment:
Well 50 percent of it anyway ;)
Comment:
So if you want to SHORT Volatility, you would sell a but a higher strike put,
UVXY BEAR PUT SPREAD
March 6th, BUY 25 PUT
March 6th, SELL 24 PUT
You pay about $50c for this, and it pays a dollar. So it is a 2 for 1 bet if the volatility drops to below the 24 level on the UVXY. You could throw in $500, and make a quick $500. Just little trading ideas, and you can use wider spread for more outlay, and more profit.
Anyway, avoid the volatility products, because they are BEFORE it blows up, unless you believe it is going back down and a stable market is coming soon, then you need to find a good way, with your risk profile, and capital to do it.
UVXY BEAR PUT SPREAD
March 6th, BUY 25 PUT
March 6th, SELL 24 PUT
You pay about $50c for this, and it pays a dollar. So it is a 2 for 1 bet if the volatility drops to below the 24 level on the UVXY. You could throw in $500, and make a quick $500. Just little trading ideas, and you can use wider spread for more outlay, and more profit.
Anyway, avoid the volatility products, because they are BEFORE it blows up, unless you believe it is going back down and a stable market is coming soon, then you need to find a good way, with your risk profile, and capital to do it.
Comment:
VIRUS
There are now 2 strains flying around of the COVID-19 virus. A more virulent (stronger) one that originated in Wuhan, and mutated in a more benign (kinder) strain, that is more like the common hold, with a higher incidence of respiratory complications.
fortune.com/2020/03/...ovid-19-wuhan-china/
There are now 2 strains flying around of the COVID-19 virus. A more virulent (stronger) one that originated in Wuhan, and mutated in a more benign (kinder) strain, that is more like the common hold, with a higher incidence of respiratory complications.
fortune.com/2020/03/...ovid-19-wuhan-china/
Comment:
Coronavirus is mutating: Chinese scientists find second strain
By
Chris Morris
By
Chris Morris
Comment:
So the second strain OUTSIDE of China appears to more mild, and this would support our original theory and the mutation makes the Virus more able to survive, because it has less chance of killing the host. Killer virus is stuff of legend, from a evolutionary biologist perspective and we have one on staff, a virus will move to a less lethal state through division, to increase longevity and length of time in host population. This will end up being another STRONG strain of the Flu and we will get over it soon.
Comment:
SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION
Now this is the crux of the market selloff, coupled with the euphoria, and oversold condition. End of Story.
www.marketwatch...emic-2020-03-04?mod=invest...
Here’s what Apple suppliers have been saying about the coronavirus
Skyworks Solutions Inc. became the latest Apple Inc. supplier to warn of negative impacts from the novel coronavirus epidemic Wednesday, joining the smartphone giant itself and a number of other supply-chain partners.
Semiconductor company Skyworks SWKS, +3.74%, based in California, lowered its revenue and earnings forecast Wednesday, as the company now expects fiscal second-quarter revenue of $760 million to $770 million, below a prior outlook of $800 million to $820 million. The company is also calling for adjusted earnings per share of $1.34 at the midpoint its new revenue range, compared to its earlier projection of $1.46 at the midpoint of the old range.
“Although COVID-19 has caused no significant disruption within Skyworks’ manufacturing operations to date, the current demand environment for our products has been negatively impacted by interruptions in global supply chains,” Chief Executive Liam Griffin said in the release, referring to the disease brought on by the novel coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China late last year.
Now this is the crux of the market selloff, coupled with the euphoria, and oversold condition. End of Story.
www.marketwatch...emic-2020-03-04?mod=invest...
Here’s what Apple suppliers have been saying about the coronavirus
Skyworks Solutions Inc. became the latest Apple Inc. supplier to warn of negative impacts from the novel coronavirus epidemic Wednesday, joining the smartphone giant itself and a number of other supply-chain partners.
Semiconductor company Skyworks SWKS, +3.74%, based in California, lowered its revenue and earnings forecast Wednesday, as the company now expects fiscal second-quarter revenue of $760 million to $770 million, below a prior outlook of $800 million to $820 million. The company is also calling for adjusted earnings per share of $1.34 at the midpoint its new revenue range, compared to its earlier projection of $1.46 at the midpoint of the old range.
“Although COVID-19 has caused no significant disruption within Skyworks’ manufacturing operations to date, the current demand environment for our products has been negatively impacted by interruptions in global supply chains,” Chief Executive Liam Griffin said in the release, referring to the disease brought on by the novel coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China late last year.
Comment:
So we certainly have supply chain issues with regard to AMD.
Here is a story about this, BEFORE THE SELLOFF,
Here is a story about this, BEFORE THE SELLOFF,
Comment:
which we brought to everyone's attention:
The Coronavirus Impact On AMD Is Underestimated
seekingalpha.com/art...md-is-underestimated
SEEKING ALPHA
Now I love Seeking Alpha, and they are locking down all their articles, so we have been posting them here, and got nailed for this, so we need to scale back, but we will do what we can. If you are buying AMD you should be reading all of this:
seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMD?s=amd
AMD: The Big Guys Keep Buying More
Business Quant•Today, 10:47 AM•43 Comments
AMD: Last Chance Below $50
Stone Fox Capital•Mon, Mar. 2•241 Comments
AMD Continues To Gain Market Share: A Good Sign For Growth In 2020 And Beyond
Bill Gunderson•Tue, Feb. 25•109 Comments
Alpha Trader Talks 'New Paradigm' Tech With Mark Hibben (Podcast)
Alpha Trader•Tue, Feb. 25•5 Comments
Building A Hedged Portfolio Around AMD As The Coronavirus Threatens
Consumption And Supply Chains In Greater China
David Pinsen•Fri, Feb. 21•74 Comments
AMD: Don't Confuse Stable Foundation With Eternity
The European View•Thu, Feb. 20•130 Comments
The Coronavirus Impact On AMD Is Underestimated
Kwan-Chen Ma•Wed, Feb. 19•466 Comments
AMD's Massive Rally May Be About To End
Mott Capital Management•Tue, Feb. 18•191 Comments
AMD Continues To Chip Away At Intel
Common Sense Trades•Fri, Feb. 14•69 Comments
AMD: The Trend Continues
Bill Maurer•Thu, Feb. 13•45 Comments
AMD: The Perfect Setup
Business Quant•Thu, Feb. 13•142 Comments
AMD's Perfect Situation Is Not Sustainable
Technology Investing•Mon, Feb. 3•200 Comments
AMD: Do Not Confuse A Bubble With A Foundation
The European View•Sun, Feb. 2•171 Comments
AMD Stock Might Have Climbed Too Fast Despite Solid Performance In 2019
Roman Luzgin•Fri, Jan. 31•52 Comments
Advanced Micro Devices: Continuing To Revamp The Company
The Value Portfolio•Fri, Jan. 31•20 Comments
Crash Protection For AMD
David Pinsen•Fri, Jan. 31•62 Comments
AMD: A Bubble In Search Of A Pin
Trapping Value•Thu, Jan. 30•353 Comments
AMD Earnings Okay, Not Great
Bill Maurer•Wed, Jan. 29•91 Comments
AMD: Good Enough
Stone Fox Capital•Wed, Jan. 29•138 Comments
AMD: Gloom And Doom Vs. To Infinity And Beyond
Austin Craig•Mon, Jan. 27•234 Comments
Continue To Expect Earnings Upside For Intel, Good Sign For AMD On Tuesday
Elazar Advisors, LLC•Mon, Jan. 27•69 Comments
AMD: Shorts Flee Ahead Of Q4 Earnings
The Coronavirus Impact On AMD Is Underestimated
seekingalpha.com/art...md-is-underestimated
SEEKING ALPHA
Now I love Seeking Alpha, and they are locking down all their articles, so we have been posting them here, and got nailed for this, so we need to scale back, but we will do what we can. If you are buying AMD you should be reading all of this:
seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMD?s=amd
AMD: The Big Guys Keep Buying More
Business Quant•Today, 10:47 AM•43 Comments
AMD: Last Chance Below $50
Stone Fox Capital•Mon, Mar. 2•241 Comments
AMD Continues To Gain Market Share: A Good Sign For Growth In 2020 And Beyond
Bill Gunderson•Tue, Feb. 25•109 Comments
Alpha Trader Talks 'New Paradigm' Tech With Mark Hibben (Podcast)
Alpha Trader•Tue, Feb. 25•5 Comments
Building A Hedged Portfolio Around AMD As The Coronavirus Threatens
Consumption And Supply Chains In Greater China
David Pinsen•Fri, Feb. 21•74 Comments
AMD: Don't Confuse Stable Foundation With Eternity
The European View•Thu, Feb. 20•130 Comments
The Coronavirus Impact On AMD Is Underestimated
Kwan-Chen Ma•Wed, Feb. 19•466 Comments
AMD's Massive Rally May Be About To End
Mott Capital Management•Tue, Feb. 18•191 Comments
AMD Continues To Chip Away At Intel
Common Sense Trades•Fri, Feb. 14•69 Comments
AMD: The Trend Continues
Bill Maurer•Thu, Feb. 13•45 Comments
AMD: The Perfect Setup
Business Quant•Thu, Feb. 13•142 Comments
AMD's Perfect Situation Is Not Sustainable
Technology Investing•Mon, Feb. 3•200 Comments
AMD: Do Not Confuse A Bubble With A Foundation
The European View•Sun, Feb. 2•171 Comments
AMD Stock Might Have Climbed Too Fast Despite Solid Performance In 2019
Roman Luzgin•Fri, Jan. 31•52 Comments
Advanced Micro Devices: Continuing To Revamp The Company
The Value Portfolio•Fri, Jan. 31•20 Comments
Crash Protection For AMD
David Pinsen•Fri, Jan. 31•62 Comments
AMD: A Bubble In Search Of A Pin
Trapping Value•Thu, Jan. 30•353 Comments
AMD Earnings Okay, Not Great
Bill Maurer•Wed, Jan. 29•91 Comments
AMD: Good Enough
Stone Fox Capital•Wed, Jan. 29•138 Comments
AMD: Gloom And Doom Vs. To Infinity And Beyond
Austin Craig•Mon, Jan. 27•234 Comments
Continue To Expect Earnings Upside For Intel, Good Sign For AMD On Tuesday
Elazar Advisors, LLC•Mon, Jan. 27•69 Comments
AMD: Shorts Flee Ahead Of Q4 Earnings
Comment:
Look at those articles, lots of opinion, some fact, but great reading, and some great authors.
Comment:
CONSOLIDATION AND SELLING CALLS AND HEDGING YOUR POSITION FOR NEWBIES
Comment:
a. You will need a Margin Account, that lets you SELL options, not just buy them. Just your jurisdiction, and get this account first.
b. You should buy the stock if you want to sell CALLS against it.
c. CALLS are the right to buy a stock at a certain price, at a certain date (or before), for a fee (premium).
d. So if you have 1000 shares of AMD, then you can SELL 10 call against your stock. CALLS are sold 1 at a time, and each CALL is 100 shares. 10 CALLS, is the right to buy 1000 Shares of AMD. If AMD is $50, this is the right to buy $50,000US worth of stock.
b. You should buy the stock if you want to sell CALLS against it.
c. CALLS are the right to buy a stock at a certain price, at a certain date (or before), for a fee (premium).
d. So if you have 1000 shares of AMD, then you can SELL 10 call against your stock. CALLS are sold 1 at a time, and each CALL is 100 shares. 10 CALLS, is the right to buy 1000 Shares of AMD. If AMD is $50, this is the right to buy $50,000US worth of stock.
Comment:
So right now, or at Market close on March 4th, 2020 that March 20 (Expiring in 15 days), went for $3.00
Math
So you get $3.00 per contract to SELL your 1000 shares at $50. That is $3000 for 15 days of Trading.
That is $200 per day to sit around and do nothing and watch the screen.
Math
So you get $3.00 per contract to SELL your 1000 shares at $50. That is $3000 for 15 days of Trading.
That is $200 per day to sit around and do nothing and watch the screen.
Comment:
So you would earn $3000, which is 7% of the stock value, SO YOU MAKE 7% ON AMD IN 2 WEEKS.
Now of course there is always a catch to this strategy, and things can go wrong:
DISASTER #1 (SMALL)
Now of course there is always a catch to this strategy, and things can go wrong:
DISASTER #1 (SMALL)
Comment:
The stock goes on a TEAR to $60. Well you just missed on on $7000, as you only got $3 per share, which is $53 for your AMD, and now YOUR
Comment:
STOCK IS GONE, AS THE BUYER WILL TAKE IT AT EXPIRATION FROM YOU AND GIVE YOU THE $3k
Comment:
So the disaster is that you LOST out on potential profit and lost your stock. You can roll up and out on options expiry day and keep your stock, but that is beyond the scope of this article.
Comment:
DISASTER #2 (BIG)
The stock tanks, and you only get $3 for that CALL. That protects you to $47 on your stock. If AMD closes at $47 on the less on March 20, you still own the stock, but you KEEP the $3000 and you can SELL those calls again. Maybe not a disaster, unless.
AMD goes from $60 to $40.
Covered calls do NOT provide enough protection in a BEAR Market, on in a Market with the current volatility.
The stock tanks, and you only get $3 for that CALL. That protects you to $47 on your stock. If AMD closes at $47 on the less on March 20, you still own the stock, but you KEEP the $3000 and you can SELL those calls again. Maybe not a disaster, unless.
AMD goes from $60 to $40.
Covered calls do NOT provide enough protection in a BEAR Market, on in a Market with the current volatility.
Comment:
So if AMD stock closes at $40, you own those shares, so the question becomes what did you pay for the stock?
So you want to sell covered calls on your stock IF you have some profit. So that is why we say to buy AMD at $41.75 and accumulate as the stock runs to $52 or so and THEN sell the CALLS. The $50 CALLS would be in the money at $52, and you might get $6 for these, that would protect you to $44 plus, you have the profit in the stock. I know this gets complicated, but read this:
Please don't be offended by the Title:
www.borntosell.com/c...ed-calls-for-dummies
So you want to sell covered calls on your stock IF you have some profit. So that is why we say to buy AMD at $41.75 and accumulate as the stock runs to $52 or so and THEN sell the CALLS. The $50 CALLS would be in the money at $52, and you might get $6 for these, that would protect you to $44 plus, you have the profit in the stock. I know this gets complicated, but read this:
Please don't be offended by the Title:
www.borntosell.com/c...ed-calls-for-dummies
Comment:
We always like the dummie series. The truth be told, the Market continues to make fools out of all of us time and time again. Rigged, yes, but not hopeless.
SOFTWARE TOOLS
We will be provided free tools shorting rolling out on Google / Android platform first. We will be posting features soon, and moving to a new site.
Alerts, info, ideas, help, hedges, when to buy, sell, long terms strategies, AI, you name it, all the tools we use in a super easy interface that a 5 year old could use.
Perfect. Just what dummies like myself need.
PRICE TARGETS
We think we will be consolidating in the $48.05 to $49.75 range for a while, but what to we know. We may head back up into the channel at $55 and make a run at $60 again. We would stand pat here, let the stock settle with the market "hopefully" over the next few days, warmer weather to stifle the virus, and the VIX to come down.
Cheers and have a great evening.
- The AMD Whisperer
SOFTWARE TOOLS
We will be provided free tools shorting rolling out on Google / Android platform first. We will be posting features soon, and moving to a new site.
Alerts, info, ideas, help, hedges, when to buy, sell, long terms strategies, AI, you name it, all the tools we use in a super easy interface that a 5 year old could use.
Perfect. Just what dummies like myself need.
PRICE TARGETS
We think we will be consolidating in the $48.05 to $49.75 range for a while, but what to we know. We may head back up into the channel at $55 and make a run at $60 again. We would stand pat here, let the stock settle with the market "hopefully" over the next few days, warmer weather to stifle the virus, and the VIX to come down.
Cheers and have a great evening.
- The AMD Whisperer
On the day the stock market gained $1.1 trillion, Robinhood went down for 17 hours
www.cnn.com/2020/03/...pp-outage/index.html