ICmarkets

Interesting PA visible on the AUD/USD, traders...

Short
FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
AUD/USD:

In the early hours of Wednesday’s session, the Australian dollar clocked fresh YTD lows of 0.6677 following the surprise decision by the RBNZ to cut interest rates by 0.5% to 1%. The move, as can be seen from the H4 timeframe, tripped sell stops beneath the 0.67 handle, though swiftly recovered a large portion of losses during London/US and concluded the day challenging newly formed H4 supply at 0.6783-0.6759. Directly overhead, the research team notes potential resistance at 0.68, with thin air above here until reaching August’s opening level/resistance at 0.6849/0.6848.

On a wider perspective, weekly price as highlighted in Wednesday’s briefing, remains languishing beneath notable support at 0.6828 (now potentially serving as resistance), extending the pullback from the 2019 yearly opening level (resistance) at 0.7042. The next support is not visible until 0.6395 on this timeframe (not seen on the screen).

Contrary to weekly action, the daily candles recently shook hands with notable support coming in at 0.6733, which happens to merge with a 127.2% AB=CD (black arrows) formation at 0.6735. Note this level, despite suffering a sizable breach, held ground into the closing bell.

Areas of consideration:

For those who shorted this market from the underside of 0.68 (a noted setup to watch for in previous reports), both take-profit targets were hit yesterday: daily support at 0.6733 and the round number 0.67 on the H4 timeframe.

As of current price, the H4 candles are chalking up back-to-back shooting star patterns at the underside of the H4 supply mentioned at 0.6783-0.6759. Whether this area holds, however, is difficult to decipher as not only are we coming off daily support at 0.6733, the round number 0.68 is likely to act as a magnet to price.

An area worth keeping an eye on for potential shorts, though may not enter the mix today, is August’s opening level/resistance at 0.6849/0.6848 on the H4 timeframe. This base is supported by daily resistance plotted close by at 0.6833 and weekly resistance at 0.6828.


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