The $USD index (DXY) has shown a clear pattern of 7-8 years of $usd strength followed by 7-8yrs of $usd weakness. If an orthodox cycle still holds despite/because of unprecedented CB intervention in the markets, the DXY high @ 103 that we saw in late 2016 should hold and the USD be on a downtrend into 2024. However, a series of individual ccys (DM and EM) point for a period of USD strength in the coming weeks/months. Watch for another potential test of 103 (already tried and failed once last March), a break will point to an unorthodox extended cycle and a new high for the USD within the next 6-12 months before fading for an extended period (7-8yrs). Another failed test of 103 will mark a triple top and confirm that the high of 2016 was indeed the end of the DXY strength period and continue to fade into 2024.
