goldenBear88

Keeping my Buy orders / DX rebound but Gold still Bullish

Long
TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Regarding my opened position: Gold is so far holding the #1,825.80 - #1,835.80 belt intact and Hourly 4 chart after pricing it’s Lower High, it is extending it’s Channel Up with #1,845.80 as the next Lower High Resistance. Despite DX on with miraculous recovery, Gold is less affected as it continues to be more tied to Usd-Jpy pair (Gold # -0.37%, Usd-Jpy # +0.14%). Note how Gold holds it’s correlation with currency pair almost on every aspect. Gold is once again used as a safe-haven asset as Stimulus hopes/speculators are keeping the Buying bias alive, as Usd-Jpy is Trading on gains / also without signs of a decline. As long as this setup continues, Selling sentiment will be postponed. Buying pressure also comes from the global pullback on equities after the disappointing German PMI data who raise flags for a possible economic slowdown. Especially if the Fundamental announcements later this week also disappoint. I remain Bullish of course on Medium-term with my Targets unchanged, but just to secure my capital and use every opportunity to spot most accurate pattern, I will carefully monitor my position in order to prevent unexpected scenarios. #1,845.80 is my Resistance and if broken I will act accordingly. Taking the Bond notes in consideration, testing their Support, Gold struggled to generate much upside momentum. In my opinion, NFP announcement didn’t had any strong impact on the markets regarding Friday, but as current week started, market configuration has changed. My first Resistance as discussed is priced at #1,845.80, if invalidated, #1,858.80 should be further extension. However on the opposite side, strong Support variance is priced at #1,815.80 (My Stop-loss), if broken Sellers should be visible on the market and drag Gold towards #1,795.70 pressure point where I will again contemplate Buying the market, but that scenario is less possible.

Gold's Intra-day:
Gold remains Neutral on an intra-day level and the Hourly 1 chart still respecting my #1,825.80 estimated Support range. Bond notes are on a slight rise (what causes Bearish spikes along with rise on Usd-Jpy and DX), DX on a positive Daily candle and U.S. futures are ranging and this is the mix that is keeping Gold (Xau-Usd on my commentary) Neutral and within + - #10$ belt. The Hourly 4 #MA50 is near so watch out for an Intra-day rebound there. Gold is on a tight spot around the current mark (spot price) and is consolidating on Hourly 1 (Micro level) since Friday's U.S. opening Bell. DX found the recovery and that configuration should add Selling pressure on Gold as I believe that since Gold is approaching the #1,825.80 zone of the Hourly 1 Channel Up, Gold's bounce to #1,861.80, is only matter of time (where the Daily chart #MA50 currently is). Unless Usd-Jpy pair and Bond notes rise dramatically (I give less chances to that) Gold has to rise.

Bottom line: No changes on the Daily perspective as the Price-action remains Neutral above the Hourly 4 #MA50 and below the Daily chart #MA50 Resistance (if broken Hourly 4 Moving Average, market sentiment turns from Bullish to Bearish on the Short-term). As the market is waiting for a catalyst, I see no alternative under such a Neutral Hourly 4 setting but to operate with my “dip Buying” strategy as the market repeated the Thursday’s fractal, breaking the Support then reversing from the Channel Up’s Bottom. I expect strong Buying session on from Monday’s U.S. opening within the suggested range and will contemplate an possible additional Buy order not to miss the uptrend potential. There is a delicate balance of Gold's price (Xau-Usd on my reports as always) with the volatility on the U.S. Bond notes and DX, and Usd-Jpy pair (which is not struggling to make a Bullish comeback anymore). This is what is keeping Gold Neutral but on High levels relative to last week. Technically and Fundamentally, Gold should rise.

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