Manu76

eurusd down

Short
Manu76 Updated   
FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Oversold position, we can expect the market to make a correction based on the indicators.

The euro made a nice bounce up with the good Brexit news but next week the euro zone has to face another problem 25% taxes on new products by the USA.
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yellow or blue is in my opinion the most probable correction down at this moment.
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Last news about the Brexit is again turning to the negative.

"It will be up to the British government to inform us about the next steps as soon as possible," responded in a tweet Mina Andreeva, spokesperson for the European executive. In the corridors of Brussels, the time is rather fatalism before this umpteenth rebound." (Euronews)
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Coming weeks will bring movement in the euro pairs
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IThe case of Brexit is not yet fixed and can still play very bad turns to the euro. In that case there's a other possible way much deeper. If the things are clearing up during the week the euro may recover but if the whole plan concerning the Brexit drops in the water we will see the bearish trend resume and in this case the rebounce up is not likely to happen ....
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If we see an inverted H&S there could be a potential rebounce through the red box (resistance) and "maybe" hit the green upper trend line. So far I can push my prediction. On the other side if the Brexit deal stays in place and the sentiment become positive again in Brussels then we can see a much smaller correction down. But I think this week can bring surprises.
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The debat about the Brexit is still going on.
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Technically there's a Cypher pattern suggesting the previously forecast of this correction down. We can watch the news and look for possible reversals on the 386 and 618 retracement of leg C - D. Approximately near the green line or the white line. But price may fall a bit lower depending on the sentiment, the Brexit debat or other economic news.
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Update: pure technical indication at this time shows a potential move up on the 4H. But in the mean time on the Daily we still have a bearish sign in the ultiple stochastics indicators. This together with the actual Brexit issue is telling us the correction down is not over. But there's a potential move up here. I expect this :
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Indications on lower timeframe M15, M30, H1 and H2 it seems this potential upmove is fake or can be fake. Just to try to explain how I use the multiple stochastics. It can be tricky sometimes just to look just at indicators. Looking to the 4H like in the screenshot shows a potential trend up coming. But I use a combination with all the possible timeframes to have a better view. So I should not mind to much the last screenshot. Just looking what will happen. In this case I put my SL at break even and a couple of pips more. In this case even if there's a surprise and the trend changes I will not loose money on this trade.
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SL at 1.1170
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The small reversal up happened and the downtrend resumed to reach the green line. Based on the bad news, we can think the downtrend may continue. Technical indicators are telling this downtrend is only at the beginning. I think target 2 of the cypher pattern will be hit (618 retracement, white line). Small reversals up can happen but should not really change anything in the actual bearish trend. I keep the short open
Trade closed: target reached:
stopped at break even for this trade. Made 25pips.
Comment:
Was not thinking it should go back up like this. My trailing stop was hit.
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