Price is trading in a parallel channel. Typically, for a valid breakout price tests each trendline 3 times. Currently, price has tested each trendline twice.
Based on my experience in similar instances for both of crypto and equities, if price is to eventually breakout above the channel, then it will finish the bottom trendline tests before the top trendline tests. When this happens, price usually breaks down below the bottom trendline after the 2nd test and then completes the 3rd test of the bottom trendline after it has returned to the channel. In such cases, price completes the last test of the top trendline during a move to breakout above the trendline.
Counter to the above, if price completes 3 tests of the top trendline before the bottom trendline, then, based on my experience, price will likely result in a break below the channel.
The arrows depict forecasts of price movement. The gold and teal arrows are the two main forecasts. The red arrows are a possible forecast that might occur if too many ppl have sold short on XRPUSD. The arrows eventually converge into one forecast path shown by the pink arrows. The purple rays show the prices near buy/sell decision points. More importantly, I think if price drops below the channel, then it will likely stay within the range indicates by the two bottom rays.
Edit: I did not include time in my forecast, only price movements. So, don’t rely on the associated times that are depicted.
Based on my experience in similar instances for both of crypto and equities, if price is to eventually breakout above the channel, then it will finish the bottom trendline tests before the top trendline tests. When this happens, price usually breaks down below the bottom trendline after the 2nd test and then completes the 3rd test of the bottom trendline after it has returned to the channel. In such cases, price completes the last test of the top trendline during a move to breakout above the trendline.
Counter to the above, if price completes 3 tests of the top trendline before the bottom trendline, then, based on my experience, price will likely result in a break below the channel.
The arrows depict forecasts of price movement. The gold and teal arrows are the two main forecasts. The red arrows are a possible forecast that might occur if too many ppl have sold short on XRPUSD. The arrows eventually converge into one forecast path shown by the pink arrows. The purple rays show the prices near buy/sell decision points. More importantly, I think if price drops below the channel, then it will likely stay within the range indicates by the two bottom rays.
Edit: I did not include time in my forecast, only price movements. So, don’t rely on the associated times that are depicted.
Comment:
I just published an alternative idea a based on a possible re-accumulation phase playing out. If valid, the parallel channel will fail and instead become a pennant. See the idea linked below.
Comment:
I published one more idea linked below that mashes the two together - both a parallel channel and pennant playing out.
Comment:
Black line is closing price, which has touched 3x on bottom and 2x on top trend lines of parallel channel. Purple line is HL/2, which has completed a broadening wedge.
