Oil rose in November, normally a weak month. When oil has risen in the month of November in the past, it has risen in 10 of 13 cases in the month of December. Apparently, when oil overrides the usual November weakness, the momentum carries through into the next month. When oil has fallen in past Novembers, oil has risen in only 9 of 23 cases in December. In the average month, December has been up in 53% of all cases. I conclude that oil will rise next month but only moderately.
As we can see in the monthly histogram of expected return, price has passed through the seasonally weak period and is moving into a seasonally stronger period in the first quarter.
The monthly cycle is in an ascending mode and rises into February. The weekly cycle is falling in December offsetting some of the monthly cycle strength, so the result is likely to be a volatile trading range followed by a January-February rally. The combination of increasing seasonal strength and rising cycles will lift prices as December concludes. Oil will likely be at the $64-$65 levels by the end of January.
OPEC's ministers will meet in Vienna on Dec. 5 and the wider OPEC+ group will meet on Dec. 6 to make a decision on the current agreement."All eyes are on OPEC this week," Innes said.Oil rose in November partly on expectations of the United States and China reaching an initial deal trade deal by the end of the year that would help restore global economic growth and future crude demand.Beijing's top priority in any phase one trade deal is the removal of existing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, China's Global Times newspaper reported on Sunday, a stance the U.S. is unlikely to agree to.The potential for no trade deal may weigh on oil prices next year, along with new supply that could create a glut, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
TAKE PROFIT - 56.72
58.61
60.40
61.90
As we can see in the monthly histogram of expected return, price has passed through the seasonally weak period and is moving into a seasonally stronger period in the first quarter.
The monthly cycle is in an ascending mode and rises into February. The weekly cycle is falling in December offsetting some of the monthly cycle strength, so the result is likely to be a volatile trading range followed by a January-February rally. The combination of increasing seasonal strength and rising cycles will lift prices as December concludes. Oil will likely be at the $64-$65 levels by the end of January.
OPEC's ministers will meet in Vienna on Dec. 5 and the wider OPEC+ group will meet on Dec. 6 to make a decision on the current agreement."All eyes are on OPEC this week," Innes said.Oil rose in November partly on expectations of the United States and China reaching an initial deal trade deal by the end of the year that would help restore global economic growth and future crude demand.Beijing's top priority in any phase one trade deal is the removal of existing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, China's Global Times newspaper reported on Sunday, a stance the U.S. is unlikely to agree to.The potential for no trade deal may weigh on oil prices next year, along with new supply that could create a glut, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
TAKE PROFIT - 56.72
58.61
60.40
61.90
Trade closed: target reached:
56.72 done
Comment:
58.61
Trade closed: target reached