Seems like the financial market is hibernating till Friday and the anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Mr. Powell’s speech will be closely watched for hints about the monetary policy decision on September 18th 2019. On July 31st FED lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points for the first time in a decade, stating that further easing will likely not be necessary. But a lot of things happened since then. The US-Sino trade war, Brexit, protests in Hong Kong, as well as political trouble in Italy are all contributing to investor jitters over a looming global recession. But Central Banks all over the world have been and are considering further monetary easing to sustain their economies. Will the FED cut interest rates further? By how much and exactly when? That’s what everyone is hoping to try and find out on Friday. Meanwhile let’s look at the technical chart of USD CHF.
4HTF – As with many currency pairs we see a dip down from August 1st and President D. Trumps announcement of new tariffs on China. The pair made a new lowest low of 2019 at 0.96598 on the 13th of August. The pair has since regained some traction when D. Trump announced a week later that the additional tariffs are to be delayed and also on better than expected US Retail Sales. We can also observe that the price nicely rebounded from the 50% Fibo.
As a result:
Further retracement up is possible, especially considering that Parabolic SAR has reversed. If MACD lines intersect, we can consider bullish target areas at a strong area of resistance in the area of 0.98365 followed by 0.98540 (61.8% Fibo).
In case of a dovish statement by the FED on Friday USD CHF is likely to move to the downside. Bearish target areas are 0.97799 (38.2% Fibo), 0.97340 (23.6% Fibo) and then we can consider the area of 0.96472-0.96598 which is the low of 2019 and strong level of support and resistance from 2018.
In addition, keep an eye out on US Existing home sales released today at 14:00GMT. Tomorrow, Initial Jobless claims at 12:30 and PMI at 13:45 GMT.
4HTF – As with many currency pairs we see a dip down from August 1st and President D. Trumps announcement of new tariffs on China. The pair made a new lowest low of 2019 at 0.96598 on the 13th of August. The pair has since regained some traction when D. Trump announced a week later that the additional tariffs are to be delayed and also on better than expected US Retail Sales. We can also observe that the price nicely rebounded from the 50% Fibo.
As a result:
Further retracement up is possible, especially considering that Parabolic SAR has reversed. If MACD lines intersect, we can consider bullish target areas at a strong area of resistance in the area of 0.98365 followed by 0.98540 (61.8% Fibo).
In case of a dovish statement by the FED on Friday USD CHF is likely to move to the downside. Bearish target areas are 0.97799 (38.2% Fibo), 0.97340 (23.6% Fibo) and then we can consider the area of 0.96472-0.96598 which is the low of 2019 and strong level of support and resistance from 2018.
In addition, keep an eye out on US Existing home sales released today at 14:00GMT. Tomorrow, Initial Jobless claims at 12:30 and PMI at 13:45 GMT.