BLUF: I get it...but I like the environment and I like the odds of a bounce for moderate-good short term execution...Let's see what happens! Find-Fix-Finish!
Comment:
Fiscal Infrastructure Projects...not just here...Europe/Asia...Governments have to do something to cover up the FookinCentralBanks...LOL!
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Implied Equity Risk Premium Update
Implied ERP on February 1, 2020= 5.22% (Trailing 12 month, with adjusted payout), 5.24% (Trailing 12 month cash yield); 5.48% (Average CF yield last 10 years); 4.94% (Net cash yield); 3.42% (Normalized Earnings & Payout)
Implied ERP in previous month = 5.06% (Trailing 12 month, with adjusted payout), 5.20% (Trailing 12 month cash yield); 5.43% (Average CF yield last 10 years); 4.86% (Net cash yield); 3.39% (Normalized Earnings & Payout)
people.stern.nyu.edu...w_Home_Page/home.htm
Implied ERP on February 1, 2020= 5.22% (Trailing 12 month, with adjusted payout), 5.24% (Trailing 12 month cash yield); 5.48% (Average CF yield last 10 years); 4.94% (Net cash yield); 3.42% (Normalized Earnings & Payout)
Implied ERP in previous month = 5.06% (Trailing 12 month, with adjusted payout), 5.20% (Trailing 12 month cash yield); 5.43% (Average CF yield last 10 years); 4.86% (Net cash yield); 3.39% (Normalized Earnings & Payout)
people.stern.nyu.edu...w_Home_Page/home.htm
Comment:
What do I mean by Environment and How I get there...
The Force of Price, Markets & Profit…getting in front of that dynamic…it’s not about stocks or earnings! It’s about understanding “What Environment” we are in and the “Conditions” that validate “What’s in front of us?” Then we navigate through the “Risk” w/an understanding of “Uncertainty.” (UNK UNK’s/Fat Tails)
Simpleton-Leadership “NOT getting hooked on Hopium…Hope is not a plan. Hope is bullshit…“Get Comfortable being Uncomfortable…Shoot-Move-Communicate!
1. TEAM(s) over Ourselves…Lethality Expounded!
2. It’s All about “INTENT”
-Being Comfortable w/being Uncomfortable
3. ENERGY matters…”Fast is Smooth and Smooth is Fast”
-We are Always “ON” as Leaders
-Project “Stability”
-Priorities & Execution
4. TEAMs of LEADERS
-The #1 person is everyone in the stack
-The #2,3,4...is the #1-Operator
5. SITUATIONAL AWARENESS “Just because you believe something doesn’t make it true.” -Being Diligent…360-Find-Fix-Finish”
Note: Convexity…means building an approach to decision-making where you gain well if things go well, but don’t lose that much if it goes poorly. The opposite is concavity, where you lose a lot if things go bad, and don’t really gain that much if it goes great.
Razor-Focus-Situational-Awareness
Extrapolate Out the BullShit
Assess the Environment We are In
Digress toward Adaptable/Flexible Strategies
The Force of Price, Markets & Profit…getting in front of that dynamic…it’s not about stocks or earnings! It’s about understanding “What Environment” we are in and the “Conditions” that validate “What’s in front of us?” Then we navigate through the “Risk” w/an understanding of “Uncertainty.” (UNK UNK’s/Fat Tails)
Simpleton-Leadership “NOT getting hooked on Hopium…Hope is not a plan. Hope is bullshit…“Get Comfortable being Uncomfortable…Shoot-Move-Communicate!
1. TEAM(s) over Ourselves…Lethality Expounded!
2. It’s All about “INTENT”
-Being Comfortable w/being Uncomfortable
3. ENERGY matters…”Fast is Smooth and Smooth is Fast”
-We are Always “ON” as Leaders
-Project “Stability”
-Priorities & Execution
4. TEAMs of LEADERS
-The #1 person is everyone in the stack
-The #2,3,4...is the #1-Operator
5. SITUATIONAL AWARENESS “Just because you believe something doesn’t make it true.” -Being Diligent…360-Find-Fix-Finish”
Note: Convexity…means building an approach to decision-making where you gain well if things go well, but don’t lose that much if it goes poorly. The opposite is concavity, where you lose a lot if things go bad, and don’t really gain that much if it goes great.
Razor-Focus-Situational-Awareness
Extrapolate Out the BullShit
Assess the Environment We are In
Digress toward Adaptable/Flexible Strategies
Comment: