DXY: Weekly OUTLOOK and LONG-TERM-FORECAST!#Fundamentals

Hey tradomaniacs,

welcome to another OUTLOOK for DXY!



Fundamentals:
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• 1. FED began to increase the interest rate too early. Economy not as stable as expected!
  The current interest rate is at the "neutral point" and does not support or damage the economy.
  
  2. Cool down is noticeable but still "ignored " by the market! Important data such as PMI, CPI and so on are
  showing worse and worse results. First real reaction was last friday after GERMANYS PMI with the worst result since 2012!
  
  3. Market sees the tradewar as "guiltier". Still hoping a deal between USA and CHINA would safe the markets and push
  the economy!
  
  4. Yield-Curves about to invert! If low-term-credits are more expensive than long-term-credits banks won`t have
  any reasons for lending! They would make no profit with this business anymore. This would cause less liquidity!
  
  5. Bonds going up! Safe haven?
  

There are way more fundamentals but I think these points will be enough to show you the circumstances..


The previous FED`s statement was a FULL PACKAGE of doves.

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The FED`s statement was a big package of DOVISH messages saying that they won`t increase the interest rate
this year anymore amid signs of an economic slowdown, and said it would halt the steady decline of its balance sheet in September.

Call it the neutral rate.. or just a try to admit not too many failures. I bet POWELL would like to decrease the interest rate but can`t!

"What the Fed is doing is trying to engineer a soft landing.
What the market is hearing though is things have gotten so weak so quickly ... and the earnings outlook is so
dire that real money managers don't want to chase this rally."
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Technical Aspects:

1. Time-Cycles:

Looking at the different Sin-Waves you`ll notice that the previous cycle has been bullish but not able to
create a noticable impulse or a new high! This is a strong evidence for weakness attributable to the recent
change of the FED`s mind from hawkish to dovish!


2.Price-Action:

The market still rotates inside of the marked up trading-range between the significant support and resistance!
We are currently at the high important resistance-level (97,29) and are probably creating a double-top-patterm!

The BREAK through the current trendline and the subsequent PULLBACk is a typical behaivor and another evidence
for a sell-off! If we trigger the neck-line of the Double-TOP we could see another attempt to create a lower low!


3. Fibonacci Ratios:

The previous umpulse up to 104,- has ended @ the 161% extension, which is excactly at the 61,& retracement-level in the higher timeframe of the downtrend!
The taken profit has caused a sell-off down to the 50% retracement-level which is exactly at the Trendline of the current primary trend!

The current diagonal Support is q the 2/1 GANN-FANN!


Moving Average:

ALL MA/s including 200,100,50 has crossed and are currently retesting the 200 ma!
This is the "death-cross" and should be another evidence for a downtrend!

The 200 M/A is our current support!



Conclusion: If we trigger the DT-Pattern I expect the market to retest 90$!

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Peace and good trades
Irasor


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