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GBP/USD has survived another test of 1.3000 in wake of mixed...

Long
FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
GBP/USD has survived another test of 1.3000 in wake of mixed UK labour and retail survey data in the run up to another speech from BoE Governor Bailey and a report on Brexit trade negotiations from EU Ministers.

The Dollar seems to be benefiting at the expense of others rather than in its own right, though a downturn in risk sentiment after Monday’s excesses on Wall Street may also be impacting alongside some consolidation after the DXY held above 93.000 yesterday and subsequently eclipsed the 50 DMA, albeit unconvincingly so far within 93.273-034 parameters as attention turns to US CPI data and the start of Q3 earnings.

No Brexit trade deal will be ready by 15/Oct, BBC reporter said, but talks continue, On state aid, reporter said environment, labour regulations etc. Brussels also insisting on robust dispute mechanism (esp after Internal Mkt Bill surprise) to take swift, weighty legal action if treaty terms breached by either side. If that is agreed, EU thinking is that its coastal states will compromise considerably on fish. Reporter says this will not happen this week; EU expectation is if deal emerges, it’ll be (mid, even late) November. (Twitter)

UK Trade Department said UK and Australia shared draft chapter text, groundwork was laid for an initial exchange of tariff offers in second round talks. (Newswires)

BoE Governor Bailey said the BoE will do everything we can to prevent high unemployment. Bailey said he thinks risks are to the downside. On negative rates, Bailey said the MPC does not know precisely when they could be implemented, will depend on consultation with banks and are not thinking about negative rates now (Newswires)

BoE's Haskel said we keep an absolutely open mind on the suitability of negative interest rates; may impact bank margins but could be offset by positive effects for the economy.

ECB sources said several policymakers are reluctant to follow Fed's Average Inflation Targeting (AIT), some fear AIT would tie their hands and create unrealistic expectations.

ECB's de Guindos said high frequency indicators point to losing momentum; says ECB policy will be consistent with the situation; says ECB does not target an exchange rate. (Newswires)

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