NFP as a reason for dollar purchases

Technically, the dollar looks neutral, but the US labor market data has recently come out too good to expect sales of the US currency following their publication.
Recall that on average during a month the US economy generates up to 200K new jobs outside agriculture, and unemployment is in historical lows.
Traditionally the US labor market statistics includes the following indicators (see the table below).

Pre-Forecast

15:30 USA NFP 157K 190K
15:30 USA Average hourly earnings (m/m) 0.3 % 0.3 %
15:30 USA Unemployment rate 3.9 % 3.9 %

Why do we not expect negative surprises on Friday? At least for two reasons. The overall shape of the US economy - GDP data, both preliminary and revised, showed that the US economy is in an excellent shape, especially against the background of GDP growth of other developed countries, for example the Eurozone. Labor market is a key parameter of the healthy economy. And one more argument of purely statistical nature. After the weak data came out last month from the point of view of the historical behavior of the NFP data on Friday, data should be better than expected. Over the past two years, it was recorded only once, when the data came out worse than the forecasts twice in a row.

Accordingly, the 200K + value for NFP is more than likely. And with such figures, the dollar sales will look more than strange.

As for other indicators, unemployment is likely to remain at a record low, and the average salary will continue to grow. So, the Fed will have every reason to raise rates in September.
All these together is a positive signal for the dollar.

In this regard, we believe that the dollar is worth buying on Friday.