DXY broke out of the bear channel momentarily, but didn't gain much momentum. It was more of an uncertainty stall around elections and stimulus. Looking like a right shoulder at the moment as much more stimulus seems certain. I'm expecting 87ish by mid year, followed by a bounce as the stimulus injection fades into Summer. Covid should improve some, then another smaller wave late Summer, early next Fall. There will be more stimulus passed in Q4, or at least dangled like a carrot. Also there may be massive inflation from wealthy people/corporation dumping cash and buying assets, to avoid new corporate and capital gains taxes starting in 2022. 2022-2024 should see a rosier time for the real economy, but perhaps at the expense of Wallstreet.
More generally, there also needs to be a shift in focus from IT to the manufacturing sector. America desperately needs to bring those jobs back home to become less dependent on China. The race for semi-conductor independence is already on. Meanwhile our infrastructures/utilities are aging and in need of desperate repairs. Any sort of global conflict would become a catalyst for this. So, long-forgotten value stocks may become popular again in coming years. Especially after an IT bubble pop, and/or a shift in the global supply chains & economies due to instability/war. Maybe 82-84 range in 2022/23.
More generally, there also needs to be a shift in focus from IT to the manufacturing sector. America desperately needs to bring those jobs back home to become less dependent on China. The race for semi-conductor independence is already on. Meanwhile our infrastructures/utilities are aging and in need of desperate repairs. Any sort of global conflict would become a catalyst for this. So, long-forgotten value stocks may become popular again in coming years. Especially after an IT bubble pop, and/or a shift in the global supply chains & economies due to instability/war. Maybe 82-84 range in 2022/23.