BLUF: Nothing is as it Seems...currently it just might be easier to go Long vs Short...too much momentum, too much craziness (TSLA)...Who Fookin Knows! Go w/HI'r probabilities via longs...just my two cents!
Note: My short is still on but I will unwind it NLT Monday of next week, I will break even vs some "Shitasterfy"...OIL/Energy/Commodities is a "NoBrainer" long term...its not about fighting the "FED" vs fighting the "Machine"...No absolutes just opportunity, get the direction/environment right first...Cheers!
The level of BullShit in the environment is Fookin Ridiculous...HEAD SHOTs ONLY!...Situational Awareness.
"Don’t get hooked on hopium…Hope is not a plan. Hope is bullshit…“Get Comfortable being Uncomfortable…Shoot-Move-Communicate!"
Note: My short is still on but I will unwind it NLT Monday of next week, I will break even vs some "Shitasterfy"...OIL/Energy/Commodities is a "NoBrainer" long term...its not about fighting the "FED" vs fighting the "Machine"...No absolutes just opportunity, get the direction/environment right first...Cheers!
The level of BullShit in the environment is Fookin Ridiculous...HEAD SHOTs ONLY!...Situational Awareness.
"Don’t get hooked on hopium…Hope is not a plan. Hope is bullshit…“Get Comfortable being Uncomfortable…Shoot-Move-Communicate!"
Comment:
Strong move in futures overnight puts the 3300 high gamma strike in play. There has not been much call gamma registering overhead and we will look for that today as a sign this move high may continue. We would anticipate some resistance at 3300 and support around the 3250-3260 area. We also want to see total gamma build back up over $1bn - while its currently ~$900mm we dont think its terribly stable - meaning we see a bit less resistance for a move down than up. That shouldnt be taken as a bearish call, just a view of support and resistance....AM Gamma Assessment.
Comment:
This is a "FookinRipYourFaceOff" market....lots of short covering happening and selling/buying every FookinBlip...remember when you buy the machine is selling and vice versa....algos do not feel, they just hover and exploit opportunity!
Comment:
On Tuesday, those catalysts took the form of more liquidity from the PBoC, an emergency OPEC+ pow wow aimed at shoring up oil prices and the confusion in Iowa. McElligott, ever the keen observer and not one to eschew colloquialisms and humor, puts things in context. To wit, from his Tuesday missive:
Last night’s primary disaster in Iowa for the Dems (with some indications that Biden was tracking at 4th)—which is “trolling-ly” being spun on Twitter as “Trump Wins Iowa Primary,” and driving some of this current “risk-ON” trade overnight and havens again on their back-foot as Trump is viewed as higher probability to win against “hard left” candidate—is of interest, because it shows that it doesn’t take a ton to cause some outsized moves to reverse some of last month’s / last week’s “extremes”.
Does any of this mean we should expect to hear McElligott (or anyone else, for that matter) suddenly pivot back to a hard reflationist narrative centered around sharply higher yields on the back of, for example, the assumption of a “kitchen-sink-type” stimulus push out of Beijing?
In a word: No.
“Looking-out one year into end-2020, I am simply on the record as saying that there was no true catalyst for a rates selloff to the extent that many strategists and market participants were prognosticating”, Charlie says, before reiterating his own view, which he described in December as “more realistic”:
This current UST “cheapening from the prior extreme” is just another swing in the pendulum back from one end of the range (1.50) to a more stable state (1.60), and not a new regime of risk-taking beyond a tactical trade tied to positioning.
Last night’s primary disaster in Iowa for the Dems (with some indications that Biden was tracking at 4th)—which is “trolling-ly” being spun on Twitter as “Trump Wins Iowa Primary,” and driving some of this current “risk-ON” trade overnight and havens again on their back-foot as Trump is viewed as higher probability to win against “hard left” candidate—is of interest, because it shows that it doesn’t take a ton to cause some outsized moves to reverse some of last month’s / last week’s “extremes”.
Does any of this mean we should expect to hear McElligott (or anyone else, for that matter) suddenly pivot back to a hard reflationist narrative centered around sharply higher yields on the back of, for example, the assumption of a “kitchen-sink-type” stimulus push out of Beijing?
In a word: No.
“Looking-out one year into end-2020, I am simply on the record as saying that there was no true catalyst for a rates selloff to the extent that many strategists and market participants were prognosticating”, Charlie says, before reiterating his own view, which he described in December as “more realistic”:
This current UST “cheapening from the prior extreme” is just another swing in the pendulum back from one end of the range (1.50) to a more stable state (1.60), and not a new regime of risk-taking beyond a tactical trade tied to positioning.
Comment:
Are You FookinKiddingMe....Yea it was a Dead-Cat-Bounce...but I trust it as far as I can throw...Ahhhhh No Worries, go LoagUpSomeTesla...GetSum...WTF/LMFAO!!!
Are You FookinKiddingMe....Yea it was a Dead-Cat-Bounce...but I trust it as far as I can throw...Ahhhhh No Worries, go LoagUpSomeTesla...GetSum...WTF/LMFAO!!!
NobodyFookinKnows...Cheers