USD/JPY shows interesting H4 bullish pennant pattern
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern (118.66/104.62). February had price elbow a touch outside the upper boundary of the aforementioned descending triangle to 112.22, though retreated lower and produced a shooting star pattern into February’s end.
March, so far, breached the lower edge of the descending triangle, yet recovered in reasonably strong fashion, leaving nearby demand at 96.41/100.81 unchallenged.
Right now, March trades lower by 3.00%.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Monday’s near-300-point decline dipped through a number of key technical supports and landed within demand fixed from 100.68/101.85 (an area glued to the top edge of monthly demand underscored above at 96.41/100.81).
Recent technical developments saw Tuesday chalk up a sizable counterattack, reclaiming all of Monday’s losses and retesting demand-turned supply at 105.57/106.17, along with joining 38.2% Fib retracement at 105.39. Wednesday pencilled in a bearish position off the said zone, though whether this was enough to convince sellers is difficult to judge.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Tuesday tested supply at 105.75/105.17, initially holding price to lows at 103.22 before marginally clipping the top edge of its area, registering highs at 105.91. Although the recent move to highs is unlikely sufficient to have cleared all sellers from the zone, it is worth noting supply seen at 108.15/107.64, in the event we push for higher ground.
Another constructive development on this timeframe is a potential bullish pennant pattern, considered a continuation formation. A breakout to the upside could see a rally to 109.68 (take-profit target measured by taking the move formed prior to the pennant pattern, and adding this value to the breakout point).
H1 timeframe:
USD/JPY remained under pressure as risk-off flows continued to dominate markets Wednesday. 105 remains a stubborn resistance, with the 100-period SMA currently providing support.
Of interest, a combination of a 127.2% Fib ext. point at 106.63, a 78.6% Fib retracement at 106.34 and another 127.2% Fib ext. point at 106.26 (yellow) is seen loitering a few points above 106. Before this, though, aside from 105, traders must contend with trendline resistance (108.53).
With respect to the RSI, the indicator is seen hovering above 50.00, after dipping from overbought territory.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price suggests buyers may now have the upper hand after regaining a foothold back within its descending triangle. Contrary to this, daily price fades a demand-turned supply zone at 105.57/106.17.
In conjunction with monthly flow, H4 movement is seen chalking up a potential bullish pennant pattern, though this is unlikely to come to fruition if we’re unable to conquer 105 on the H1.
Should a H1 close form above 105, along with a H4 close outside of the current bullish pennant pattern, this may interest buyers, regardless of daily structure.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern (118.66/104.62). February had price elbow a touch outside the upper boundary of the aforementioned descending triangle to 112.22, though retreated lower and produced a shooting star pattern into February’s end.
March, so far, breached the lower edge of the descending triangle, yet recovered in reasonably strong fashion, leaving nearby demand at 96.41/100.81 unchallenged.
Right now, March trades lower by 3.00%.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Monday’s near-300-point decline dipped through a number of key technical supports and landed within demand fixed from 100.68/101.85 (an area glued to the top edge of monthly demand underscored above at 96.41/100.81).
Recent technical developments saw Tuesday chalk up a sizable counterattack, reclaiming all of Monday’s losses and retesting demand-turned supply at 105.57/106.17, along with joining 38.2% Fib retracement at 105.39. Wednesday pencilled in a bearish position off the said zone, though whether this was enough to convince sellers is difficult to judge.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Tuesday tested supply at 105.75/105.17, initially holding price to lows at 103.22 before marginally clipping the top edge of its area, registering highs at 105.91. Although the recent move to highs is unlikely sufficient to have cleared all sellers from the zone, it is worth noting supply seen at 108.15/107.64, in the event we push for higher ground.
Another constructive development on this timeframe is a potential bullish pennant pattern, considered a continuation formation. A breakout to the upside could see a rally to 109.68 (take-profit target measured by taking the move formed prior to the pennant pattern, and adding this value to the breakout point).
H1 timeframe:
USD/JPY remained under pressure as risk-off flows continued to dominate markets Wednesday. 105 remains a stubborn resistance, with the 100-period SMA currently providing support.
Of interest, a combination of a 127.2% Fib ext. point at 106.63, a 78.6% Fib retracement at 106.34 and another 127.2% Fib ext. point at 106.26 (yellow) is seen loitering a few points above 106. Before this, though, aside from 105, traders must contend with trendline resistance (108.53).
With respect to the RSI, the indicator is seen hovering above 50.00, after dipping from overbought territory.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price suggests buyers may now have the upper hand after regaining a foothold back within its descending triangle. Contrary to this, daily price fades a demand-turned supply zone at 105.57/106.17.
In conjunction with monthly flow, H4 movement is seen chalking up a potential bullish pennant pattern, though this is unlikely to come to fruition if we’re unable to conquer 105 on the H1.
Should a H1 close form above 105, along with a H4 close outside of the current bullish pennant pattern, this may interest buyers, regardless of daily structure.