Sub 0.70 - pushing below H1 TL support may prompt selling today
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension and June’s impressive rally so far has placed monthly price around the upper border of supply at 0.7029/0.6664. What’s also notable here is within the supply area’s walls a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) was recently penetrated, signifying buyers may still have the advantage.
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Buyers and sellers on the daily timeframe are seen squaring off between two trendline resistances (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671) along with supply at 0.7059/0.7031 and support from 0.6931.
The biggest challenge for sellers right now is overcoming support at 0.6931. Breaching the aforesaid level may fuel a drop to another support pencilled in at 0.6755, while an advance could propel things towards resistance at 0.7197.
Indicator-based traders will note the RSI oscillator dipping from peaks at 80.00, perhaps exiting overbought territory today. It may also interest traders to note the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6663 is in the process of flattening following months of drifting lower.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
0.7046/0.7036 made its debut as supply Tuesday and, as you can see, held again Wednesday, albeit popping to multi-month peaks at 0.7064.
Assuming we push south and dethrone Tuesday’s low at 0.6898, demand at 0.6827/0.6858 (prior supply) will be on the hit list as the next potential floor on this timeframe. It should be noted this area also joins closely with trendline support (0.6402).
H1 timeframe:
Traders butted heads at 0.7050 yesterday, serving as resistance. Buyers have so far taken a backseat here, sending action marginally sub 0.70. Trendline support (0.6898) poses a concern for sellers here, as does the 100-period simple moving average.
Nudging through the aforesaid supports could see price unwind back to the 0.69 region.
RSI action recently topped ahead of overbought levels and is now within touching distance of retesting its 50.00 value.
Structures of Interest:
While monthly price appears to want higher levels, a dip lower could still be in the offing.
H4 supply holding at 0.7046/0.7036, along with its closely associated daily supply at 0.7059/0.7031/trendline resistances, H1 could make a run for levels under trendline support today, prompting bearish themes to 0.69. However, one cautionary point to consider before taking a position is daily support at 0.6931 may hamper downside ahead of 0.69. Therefore, ensure you factor this into your risk/reward calculation.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension and June’s impressive rally so far has placed monthly price around the upper border of supply at 0.7029/0.6664. What’s also notable here is within the supply area’s walls a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) was recently penetrated, signifying buyers may still have the advantage.
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Buyers and sellers on the daily timeframe are seen squaring off between two trendline resistances (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671) along with supply at 0.7059/0.7031 and support from 0.6931.
The biggest challenge for sellers right now is overcoming support at 0.6931. Breaching the aforesaid level may fuel a drop to another support pencilled in at 0.6755, while an advance could propel things towards resistance at 0.7197.
Indicator-based traders will note the RSI oscillator dipping from peaks at 80.00, perhaps exiting overbought territory today. It may also interest traders to note the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6663 is in the process of flattening following months of drifting lower.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
0.7046/0.7036 made its debut as supply Tuesday and, as you can see, held again Wednesday, albeit popping to multi-month peaks at 0.7064.
Assuming we push south and dethrone Tuesday’s low at 0.6898, demand at 0.6827/0.6858 (prior supply) will be on the hit list as the next potential floor on this timeframe. It should be noted this area also joins closely with trendline support (0.6402).
H1 timeframe:
Traders butted heads at 0.7050 yesterday, serving as resistance. Buyers have so far taken a backseat here, sending action marginally sub 0.70. Trendline support (0.6898) poses a concern for sellers here, as does the 100-period simple moving average.
Nudging through the aforesaid supports could see price unwind back to the 0.69 region.
RSI action recently topped ahead of overbought levels and is now within touching distance of retesting its 50.00 value.
Structures of Interest:
While monthly price appears to want higher levels, a dip lower could still be in the offing.
H4 supply holding at 0.7046/0.7036, along with its closely associated daily supply at 0.7059/0.7031/trendline resistances, H1 could make a run for levels under trendline support today, prompting bearish themes to 0.69. However, one cautionary point to consider before taking a position is daily support at 0.6931 may hamper downside ahead of 0.69. Therefore, ensure you factor this into your risk/reward calculation.